Friday 4/13/2012 Free Service Plays ( Premiums & Comps )

[rustyw]

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WELCOME TO FBZ!

[Gman1]

Hot line$:
Friday’s best MLB bet$

Chicago Cubs at
St. Louis Cardinals (-200, 7)
The Chicago Cubs finally picked up their first win of the season Thursday, just ahead of their first meeting of the year with the rival Cardinals. Chicago pounded out 13 hits and Matt Garza threw 8 2/3 innings of shutout ball and struck out nine as the Cubs cruised to a 8-0 blowout of Zach Greinke and his Milwaukee Brewers. Cubs supporters would like to think that is the kind of win that could get the team’s season turned around, but tread carefully here. The new-look Cardinals are 5-2 to start the year despite dealing Albert Pujols to Miami in the offseason. "What do you mean?" pitcher Adam Wainwright asked reporters when questioned about the lack of marquee names in the lineup. "We don't have Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman? Lance Berkman is a Hall of Famer potentially, Matt Holliday should have won the MVP in '07 and he's a batting champion."True enough. It doesn’t hurt that the Cardinals are 8-2 against the Cubs with Wainwright on the hill. We’ll stick to the under. Pick: Under

Tampa Bay Rays
at Boston Red Sox (-120, 8.5)
Remember last season when the Red Sox started the year 2-10 before rallying to grab the division lead by May 27. Of course, they blew it down the stretch, but it’s probably too early to get worked up over the team’s 1-5 start.
That said, there are troubling signs. With a loaded batting order, Nick Punto and Ryan Sweeney have been the team’s best hitters to date. Against Toronto ace Ricky Romero, the BoSox managed just three hits. And then there’s the pitching. Boston owns a 6.40 team ERA with Thursday’s starter, Josh Beckett, contributing to the problem in a big way. Beckett was drilled for seven runs and five dingers in just 4 2/3 innings of work against the Detroit Tigers. Meanwhile, David Price got out of a couple jams in his first start of the year to come away with a win over the Yankees, allowing just two runs over 6 1/3 innings. Pick: Rays

[Gman1]

Ice pick$:
Friday's best NHL bet$

New Jersey Devils
at Florida Panthers (+105, 5)
Even though the Florida Panthers are making their first trip to the playoffs since 2000, it’s not like their roster is inexperienced. Florida has nine players with at last 40 games of postseason experience, which should help the club against a hot Devils team. "We've got guys who have been there, done that, won Stanley Cups, whatever it may be, as does New Jersey," Stephen Weiss told reporters. "At the end of the day, it's a hockey game. I know how to play hockey. I'm just going to go out and do my thing.”The big problem for Florida is they don’t give you a point for a tie in the postseason. Florida earned a point on 18 different occasions with overtime or shootout losses in the regular season. The Panthers won just two of their last 10 games down the stretch, so it’s not like their experience is showing through in pressure-packed situations. They could be a handful for the Devils, but New Jersey comes in hot with six straight wins. Pick: Devils

Detroit Red Wings
at Nashville Predators (-125, 5)
The Nashville Predators came away with a win in Game 1 and captain Shea Weber escaped a suspension after he smashed Henrik Zetterberg’s head off the glass in the final seconds. For Preds bettors, that’s a Daily Double. Nashville certainly deserves a 1-0 lead in the series, but don’t discount the fact that Detroit outshot the Preds 37-26. "I thought we deserved a little better, but that's why they call it a series, there's more than one game,” Detroit defenseman Brad Stuart told reporters. “We'll have an opportunity to make up for it. We're just going to come out and try to continue with the same effort we had, in the last two periods at least. I think we'll be all right, that's why these series tend to be long."These Predators are tough. They battle hard and have a bit more offensive punch than they’ve had in past years. Detroit won’t come out flat two games in a row, though. The Wings will have this series level heading back to Joe Louis Arena. Pick: Red Wings

[Gman1]

Friday’s betting tip$

Who’s HOT
NBA: Atlanta has covered in five of its last six.
NBA: Cleveland has covered in each of its last five.
NHL: New Jersey has won six straight games.
NHL: The over is 6-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last eight.
MLB: Seattle is 16-5 in its last 21 games with Felix Hernandez starting.
MLB: The over is 4-0 in Atlanta’s last four games.

Who’s NOT
NBA: New Orleans is 5-13-1 against the spread in its last 19 meetings with Utah.
NBA: The Los Angeles Lakers are 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 overall.
NHL: Detroit has won four of its last 15.
NHL: Florida has won just once over its last six.
MLB: The Los Angeles Angels are 4-13 in their last 17 games at Yankee Stadium.
MLB: Boston is 6-21 in its last 27 dating back to last season’s collapse.

Key stat 20 –
The Philadelphia Flyers won 20 games in the regular season after allowing the first goal, most in the entire league. Philadelphia was down 3-0 to Pittsburgh at the first intermission before roaring back for a 4-3 overtime victory. The Flyers are set as +175 underdogs in Game 2.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers –
Bryant is considered a game-time decision for Friday’s game against Denver as he recovers from his shin injury. The Lakers were given an off day Thursday, but Bryant reported to the team’s facility for treatment. Oddsmakers are holding their lines until Bryant’s status is updated.

Game of the day
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic (N/A)

Notable quotable
“I know he's [Theodore] a heck of a goalie that's had playoff success and I know he's played some quality hockey for us this year. And Clem's done a heck of a job for us for the last three weeks. So exciting time in our net, to say the least.” – Florida Panthers coach Kevin Dineen on trying to pick a starting goaltender for Friday’s Game 1 against New Jersey. Jose Theordore was Florida’s No. 1 goalie for much of the year but Scott Clemmensen had a 1.19 goals-against average in five games down the stretch to help the team make the playoffs.

Notes and tips

Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge will miss the rest of the season to undergo surgery on his right hip. Aldridge has been bothered by hip pain for the past this weeks and underwent an initial MRI exam that failed to disclose a slight labral tear. The injury was discovered during a visit this week to Vail, Colo. No date has been set for the surgery. The 6-foot-11 Aldridge has averaged 21.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists this season.

Vancouver Canucks fourth-liner Byron Bitz was suspended two games Thursday for his hit on Kyle Clifford of the Los Angeles Kings in Wednesday's game. Bitz, who was whistled for a boarding major and a game misconduct for the hit, learned of his punishment during a disciplinary hearing Thursday. Clifford eventually exited the contest with an upper body injury for the Kings, who stunned the top-seeded Canucks with a 4-2 victory in Game 1 of their Western Conference quarterfinal series.

Johnny Damon has signed with the Cleveland Indians and is expected to become the team’s regular left fielder once he’s ready to go. The 38-year-old Damon spent last season with the Tampa Bay Rays, batting .261 with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs. He had played one year for the Detroit Tigers in 2010 and spent the previous four seasons with the New York Yankees. Damon has a .283 career batting average in 17 seasons.

Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard says he thinks his sore back will keep him out of the lineup Friday night against Atlanta. "I don't think I'm going to play," Howard said. "There's nothing I can really do but continue to stay on it, stretch, get massages, do whatever I can. I'm just trying not to let it happen again, but I don't want to go out there till I'm 100 percent. My team needs me playing 100 percent and not out there playing 60 or 70 percent." Oddsmakers have yet to set a line.

[Gman1]

Pick 'n' roll:
Friday's best NBA bet$

Sacramento Kings
at Oklahoma City Thunder (-14, 213)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the midst of their worst stretch of the season entering Friday’s home game against the Sacramento Kings.Oklahoma City is just 2-4 straight up and against the spread over its last six games after losing at home to the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. The Thunder hold a one-game lead over the San Antonio Spurs for best record in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City begins a five-game road trip following the Sacramento contest and the most pivotal factor will be ending the recent slide and having momentum entering the playoffs. “You’re going to have to win games in the playoffs, no matter who you play,” sixth man James Harden told reporters. “We’re not worried about that. We just want to close these remaining games out and then go from there.”Sacramento has lost six consecutive games both straight up and against the spread, so maybe the Thunder can get back on track here. Pick: Thunder

Washington Wizards
at New York Knicks (-10.5, 197.5)
After winning a crucial showdown in Milwaukee to solidify their hold on the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks return home to host the Washington Wizards on Friday night.New York has won seven of 10 to open a two-game lead over the Bucks and close within one game of Philadelphia for the No. 7 seed. J.R. Smith drilled a go-ahead 3-pointer with 64 seconds to play in Wednesday’s 111-107 win at Milwaukee. That came two games after he was a miserable 6 of 22 against Chicago, but ignited a comeback with a late 3-pointer. He is averaging 14.7 points off the bench in his last six games.The Wizards, owners of the second-worst road record in the conference, have lost eight consecutive games to the Knicks, covering the number just once.The Knicks have covered the last three times they’ve been favored by at least 10 points, but we’re worried about a letdown.
Pick: Over

[Gman1]

Tampa Bay Rays (4-1)
at Boston Red Sox (1-5)

Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay: Price (1-0, 2.84 ERA)
Boston: Beckett (0-1, 13.50 ERA)
Rays - Red Sox Preview

Fenway Park will be all decked out for its 101st season. Fans will flood the streets and fill the seats at the neighborhood stadium. Red Sox players will try to give them a good show.Boston's passionate and demanding rooters could have little patience for a continued early season slide for the second straight year."I think we have the greatest fans in the world," new manager Bobby Valentine said. "We'll find out."
The Red Sox were 1-5 on their season-opening road trip to Detroit and Toronto. On Friday, with colorful bunting adorning the park, they begin a tough nine-game homestand -- four against Tampa Bay, two against Texas and three against New York.Last year's start was even worse, an 0-6 flop overshadowed by a 7-20 September collapse that left them out of the playoffs -- and the Rays in them -- with a loss on the final day.And they did surge from last year's early troubles to take sole possession of first place in the AL East by May 27 with a 29-22 record."You have stretches where you play six games and things don't go your way," Valentine said. "Then you have stretches where you play six games and everything goes your way. Six games is a ridiculously small sample size."So there's plenty of hope for fans who will sit in the stadium where the Red Sox beat the New York Highlanders (later to become the Yankees) in the first regular-season game there April 20, 1912.The Yankees will be the opponent there on the 100th anniversary of that game to open a three-game series. Fenway has undergone numerous upgrades since John Henry bought the team in February 2002 -- seats above the Green Monster, upgraded concourses, a new scoreboard -- after years in which there was a major push for a new park elsewhere.In early March, the ballpark was added to the National Register of Historic Places.But what kind of ballclub plays there? The rotation is a question mark, although Jon Lester was solid in his two starts.Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz were shelled in their first outings, Daniel Bard is making the transition from setup man and Felix Doubront is in it for the first time.The bullpen is a jumble with Jonathan Papelbon now in Philadelphia and his replacement, Andrew Bailey, likely sidelined until midseason after thumb surgery.Beckett (0-1, 13.50 ERA), who allowed five homers in his first start, will face David Price (1-0, 2.84) of the Rays on Friday."That first start's always a crapshoot," Beckett said. "You've got a lot of anxiety leading up to that. You want to do well. A lot of times, you expend too much energy on things that don't help you be successful."The hitters are struggling, too, with a .236 batting average and two homers in six games before Thursday's off day.
"We've been here before and we know we can get out of it," first baseman Adrian Gonzalez said. "And we will. But nobody wanted this."Now they must play the Rays, who swept a three-game series against the Yankees before losing two of three in Detroit including a 7-2 defeat Thursday afternoon."We're very pleased to be 4-2 after playing two of the best teams in the American League, but it isn't going to get any easier," manager Joe Maddon said. "Everyone is going to be excited in Boston and they need some wins so we need to keep playing at this level."Price had a much stronger season debut than Beckett, limiting the Yankees to two runs over six innings of an 8-6 victory Saturday. He's 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 10 starts versus Boston.Rays third baseman Evan Longoria went 2 for 4 on Thursday, raising his average to .476 during a season-opening six-game hitting streak. He may have a good chance to continue his run, as he's 12 for 37 (.324) with two homers and three doubles off Beckett.

All Trends Listed are 80% or Better


Boston Red Sox Trends :
Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Red Sox are 5-0 in Becketts last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 6-0 in Becketts last 6 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Red Sox are 5-1 in Becketts last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Becketts last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Becketts last 5 Friday starts.


Boston Red Sox Over / Under Trends :
Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a home favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 home games.
Over is 10-2-1 in Red Sox last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 8-2-1 in Red Sox last 11 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0-1 in Becketts last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 7-1-1 in Becketts last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Becketts last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1-1 in Becketts last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 4-1-1 in Becketts last 6 starts on grass

Tampa Bay Rays Trends :
Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Rays are 4-1 in Prices last 5 road starts.
Rays are 4-1 in Prices last 5 starts on grass.

Tampa Bays Rays Over / Under Trends :
Under is 9-2 in Rays last 11 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 9-2 in Prices last 11 Friday starts.
Under is 13-3 in Prices last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in Prices last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Head To Head Competition
Under is 4-0 in Becketts last 4 starts vs. Rays.
Rays are 4-0 in Prices last 4 road starts vs. Red Sox.
Rays are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
Under is 6-1 in Becketts last 7 home starts vs. Rays.
Rays are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
Rays are 5-1 in Prices last 6 starts vs. Red Sox.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Becketts last 5 starts vs. Rays.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Becketts last 5 home starts vs. Rays.

Umpire ??

Minneapolis Time 2:00 AM
Pinnacle Sports Book
Boston Red Sox - $ 1.18
Tampa Bay Rays + $ 1.11
Over / Under 8.5 Runs
Public Money
942 Bets
Boston Red Sox 22%
Tampa Bay Rays 78 %

[Gman1]

Phoenix Suns (30-28)
at Houston Rockets (32-26)

Toyota Center
After completing an impressive road trip, the Houston Rockets had a bad start to a five-game run against teams they're battling for a playoff spot.Virtually every game remaining for the Phoenix Suns appears to be tough as they try to make the postseason.The Rockets look to avoid a season-high third consecutive home loss Friday night and deal another blow to Phoenix's playoff hopes while boosting their own.These teams are among a group of five within 2 1/2 games of each other for the final three playoff spots in the Western Conference.Houston (32-26) will face all of its competitors for those postseason berths in an eight-day span starting this week, hosting Utah and the Suns before a home-and-home set against Denver and a visit to Dallas.That stretch began in poor fashion with Wednesday's 103-91 loss to the Jazz following a 4-0 road swing that included wins over Chicago and the Lakers."We had a great road trip and had a little bit of a letdown but we will bounce back," said Kyle Lowry, who played his third game after missing 15 with a bacterial infection.Houston fell to 5-5 at home since the beginning of March and now looks to avoid losing three straight there for the first time since January 2011.The Rockets never led after the first quarter Wednesday, shooting a season-worst 35.6 percent and allowing an opponent to hit better than 50 percent for the first time in 11 games."Today was big and we let it go," forward Luis Scola said. "Now we have to see if we can get Friday against Phoenix."Houston lost the season series tiebreaker to Utah but could win it against Phoenix, having won two of the first three meetings.The Suns (30-28) fell to 10th place in the West with a 104-93 defeat in Memphis on Wednesday as Utah jumped past them by beating the Rockets."We really have to focus on getting every win possible and not worry about the standings," forward Josh Childress said. "When the season is over, see where we stand. We can't be playing for that seed. We've got to be playing to win every game."Only one of Phoenix's final eight games is against a sub-.500 team and half of them are against three of the West's best - San Antonio (twice), Oklahoma City and the Clippers.Phoenix has won five of seven and held fourth-quarter leads in both losses during that span, getting outscored 30-8 in the final five minutes."We've got to do a better job finishing games, especially on the road," coach Alvin Gentry said. "We play hard and we put ourselves in a position to have an opportunity to win a game, and you just have to finish it."Gentry's club had no problem doing that when it last faced Houston, leading by double digits throughout the final three quarters in a 99-86 home win March 18. The Rockets similarly dominated the lone matchup in Houston, winning 99-81 on Feb. 3.Michael Redd led Phoenix in the last meeting with 25 points but scored two Wednesday after averaging 17.2 in the previous five games. Shannon Brown, though, continued his solid play with 18 points - slightly above his average in nine games starting for the injured Grant Hill.Former Sun Goran Dragic also has flourished since joining Houston's starting lineup 18 games ago when Lowry fell ill, averaging 18.6 points and 8.6 assists.

All Trends Listed are 80% or Better

Phoenix Suns Trends :
Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Suns are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Phoenix Suns Over / Under Trends :
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Houston Rockets Trends :
Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Houston Rockets Over / Under Trends :
Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Over is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games following a S.U. loss.

Head to Head Competition
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Suns are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Houston.

Minneapolis Time 4:20 AM
Pinnacle Sports Book
Houston Rockets - 4
Houston Rockets Over / Under Under 199.5

Public Money
680 Bets
Phoenix Suns 62 %
Houston Rockets 38 %

[Gman1]

Turner 4/13
4/13/2012
Game: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 (+140)

[Gman1]

Best and worst MLB bullpens

But many games are won and lost
long after the aces have hit the showers.
Let's take a look at some of the best
and worst bullpens in the majors,
as the season's first month rolls on.

The Best

Atlanta Braves
It’s tough to find weaknesses in the Braves' bullpen, if you look at it as a long-term strength and not the fact that Atlanta is just 1-4 so far this season. The numbers were simply startling last season, and it should take more than a rough start to sway bettors off Atlanta's relievers. The bullpen finished first in ERA (3.03) and batting average against (.221) last year and took third in saves (52). The crew is struggling so far, despite already posting three holds, but the horses are there to think a turnaround is coming. Craig Kimbrel had 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA last year, Jonny Venters had five saves and a 1.84 ERA, and Eric O'Flaherty posted a 0.98 ERA in 73 2-3 innings. Hang in there with Atlanta.

Arizona Diamondbacks
J.J. Putz is a shining example of how closers can reinvent themselves in this game, perhaps more than any other position. Putz was a disaster with the Mets in 2009, but after a stop with the White Sox, has found a home in Arizona. He already has three saves and four strikeouts in three innings, and heads a bullpen that is better than people think.Arizona, with David Hernandez and Brad Ziegler behind Putz on the depth chart, already has four saves, five holds and a 1.15 ERA this season. A lot of people just remember Putz and his 45 saves last season as the Diamondbacks won the NL West. The truth is, the Diamondbacks' bullpen allowed just a .247 batting average against last year and led the majors with 58 team saves.

Texas Rangers
The bullpen wasn't tremendous last season, but the Rangers have been to consecutive World Series - not an easy feat in the American League. So, the relievers must be doing something right. And this year, they have more depth, more experience and - unlike Atlanta - they are off to a good start. Texas has a 0.63 bullpen ERA to go along with two saves, five holds and a .157 batting-average against mark. Joe Nathan, with 261 career saves entering the season, adds an edge from Minnesota and former starter Alexi Ogando already has two holds in three appearances. Keep in mind, he went 13-8 as a starter last season with 126 strikeouts.

The Worst

Houston Astros
With all due respect to Brett Myers - we realize closers can come back to life like Putz - the Astros may not give Myers enough opportunities to complete a comeback. This is a bullpen that was second to last in ERA last season (4.49) and dead last in saves (25). The names behind Myers leave a lot to be desired, though up-and-down Brandon Lyon did have 20 saves back in 2010. After Lyon, you're looking at Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Wesley Wright, and Rhiner Cruz. There could be some tough sledding ahead. Give the squad credit though. In a small sampling, the league is hitting just .208 off it so far.

Baltimore Orioles
Jim Johnson is trying to save the day for a club that was brutal on the back end last year. The Orioles finished 27th in bullpen ERA (4.18), amassed just 32 saves and Kevin Gregg lost his closer role along the way.But Johnson gives the team some hope. He already has two saves, three strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA, and the bullpen has compiled 16 1-3 innings of work. There's not much after Gregg, now the setup man, unless Troy Patton, Luis Ayala, Matt Lindstrom, and Pedro Strop do it for you.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins, with injuries all over the place last season, managed 32 saves. But a closer look at the numbers shows the true problem: Minnesota just didn't have the depth and the talent to mix and match. As a result, it compiled a 4.51 bullpen ERA - worst in the majors - and relievers stomached 28 losses. Matt Capps, with 31 saves the last two seasons, is the best of the bunch, and Glen Perkins, behind him, had 17 holds last year. But there's not much there after them. And though Nathan was hurt often and the club had to find ways to move on without him, it still might be a difficult thing not to have him around ... if nothing else as a mentor.

[Gman1]

Round 1 odds and upset picks

Just get in. That's conventional wisdom when it comes to the NHL playoffs, because once you are in, anything can happen.Two years ago, for example, the Philadelphia Flyers made the Stanley Cup finals as the seventh seed, beating the eighth-seeded Montreal Canadiens in the Eastern Conference finals to do it. In 2005-06, another 8-seed, the Edmonton Oilers, came within one win of the Stanley Cup.Momentum is part of it: You need to be healthy and firing on all cylinders going into the playoffs so that you can peak at the right time. But even more important is how a team has outscored opponents in its past 35 games, which is why we could be in for two very surprising Round 1 upsets.In the early 1980s, Bill James of "Moneyball" fame noted that a baseball team's true strength could largely be determined more accurately by looking at runs scored and runs allowed than by looking at wins and losses. To be more specific, he found that one can predict future win-loss records more accurately using only past runs scored and runs allowed as opposed to using only past wins and losses. The same can be said for hockey using goals for and goals against. Here is the formula, known as the Pythagorean win expectation: goals for squared divided by (goals for squared + goals against squared).For example, this season's Presidents' Trophy-winning Vancouver Canucks scored 249 goals and gave up 198. Using the Pythagorean formula, we could expect them to win 60.6 percent of their games, or 50 wins. They ended the season with 51.Knowing a team's Pythagorean win expectation also allows us to figure out who is more likely to win in a head-to-head matchup over a seven-game series. In Vancouver's last 35 games, it scored 72 goals while giving up 55 -- almost identical to the Los Angeles Kings (71-57), its first-round opponent -- making this matchup almost a coin flip, albeit one in Los Angeles' favor.
There is no doubt that the Kings have goaltending good enough to upset the Canucks. Jonathan Quick had 10 shutouts in the regular season, which led the league, and in 15 games he allowed two goals or fewer but suffered the loss.It is unclear whether Vancouver will be without Daniel Sedin, who led the Canucks with 30 goals before being elbowed by Duncan Keith in a loss to Chicago on March 21. Sedin was back at practice Monday, but if he doesn't return to the lineup, expect Vancouver's power play (which is 2-for-35 in its past nine games) to continue to struggle.
Chance of Los Angeles Kings winning series: 53 percent
Prediction: Kings in seven


New York Rangers vs. Ottawa Senators
This appears to be a classic offense-versus-defense matchup, one in which Ottawa has a good chance to upset the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the New York Rangers.
Defensively, the Rangers gave up just 187 goals this season, thanks in part to a Vezina-caliber performance by Henrik Lundqvist. The Rangers' netminder ended the regular season in the top five for save percentage (.930), shutouts (eight) and goals-against average (1.97).Ottawa has been the better team in the past 35 games. The Senators have tallied 91 goals while giving up 80, while New York has just a plus-4 goal differential (90 GF-86 GA). That makes the Senators a slight favorite and gives them an edge during the series even though New York has home-ice advantage.
Chance of Ottawa Senators winning series: 53 percent
Prediction: Senators in six

Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals
A month ago, this would have looked like one of the more lopsided matchups of the postseason, but because Washington has Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green in the lineup and Boston lostTuukka Rask to injury in early March, the gap between the two has closed a little bit.In the past 35 games, Boston (89 GF-93 GA) and Washington (80 GF-90 GA) have been outscored by their competition, but Washington has struggled to win on the road this season, and teams that struggle away from home do not perform well in the playoffs. Since the lockout, no team has advanced past the first round with a road win percentage under .400. The Capitals went 16-21-4 this season (.390), which puts them just below the mark.
Chance of Boston Bruins winning series: 59 percent
Prediction: Bruins in five


San Jose Sharks vs. St. Louis Blues
Left for dead earlier this season, the Blues had a turnaround for the ages under the guidance of Jack Adams front-runner Ken Hitchcock. Their goal differential over the past 35 games is plus-25, making them an obstacle as the Sharks attempt to avoid another postseason disappointment.
Chance of St. Louis Blues winning series: 90 percent
Prediction: Blues in four

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Phoenix Coyotes
The Blackhawks looked like Cup contenders in early January, but a nine-game losing streak, a concussion for team captain Jonathan Toews and a minus-10 goal differential over the past 35 games limits expectations for their postseason performance.Phoenix, on the other hand, comes in strong with a plus-17 goal differential in front of a hot goaltender in Mike Smith, who went 38-18-10 with a .930 save percentage during the regular season.
Chance of Phoenix Coyotes winning series: 87 percent
Prediction: Coyotes in six

Detroit Red Wings vs. Nashville Predators
Like Washington, the Red Wings have struggled on the road, winning just 17 games away from Joe Louis Arena. Injuries also have been a concern, with Pavel Datsyuk (arthroscopic knee surgery), Nicklas Lidstrom (deep bone bruise in ankle), Johan Franzen (back spasms), Jimmy Howard (strained groin) and Jonathan Ericsson (fractured wrist) each missing a significant amount of time.Nashville, on the other hand, boasts one of the NHL's best blue-line tandems in Shea Weber andRyan Suter, who have helped fuel the Predators' plus-27 goal differential in the past 35 games.
Chance of Nashville Predators winning series: 83 percent
Prediction: Predators in six

New Jersey Devils vs. Florida Panthers
A long shot to make the playoffs before the season began, the Florida Panthers were the best of the worst division, the Southeast. They are also statistically the worst top-three seed in the postseason with a minus-17 goal differential in their past 35 games.The Devils, on the other hand, charged into the postseason on a plus-18 differential, giving them the edge in this seven-game series. If you consider New Jersey the underdog in this one, expect an upset.
Chance of New Jersey Devils winning series: 82 percent
Prediction: Devils in four

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
If the 68 total PIMs doled out during their April 1 matchup are any indication, this is going to be one heck of a series.Philadelphia was a Stanley Cup finalist in 2010, and Pittsburgh won the Cup in 2009, so both clubs know what it takes to make a deep run in the playoffs. But you have to give the edge to the Penguins.Pittsburgh boasts five 20-goal scorers, including a 50-goal scorer in Evgeni Malkin and a 40-goal scorer in James Neal. Plus, the Penguins have been averaging more than four goals per game since Feb. 21, giving them the league's best goal differential in the past 35 games (plus-38).Expect fireworks in this matchup, but also expect Pittsburgh to still be playing in June.
Chance of Pittsburgh Penguins winning series: 71 percent
Prediction: Penguins in six

[rustyw]

MLB

Hot Pitchers
-- Samardzija allowed three runs in 8.2 IP in winning his first '12 start, his 6th big league start, first since '10.
-- Dickey is 2-2, 1.82 in his last five starts.
-- Harrell has a 2.93 RA in his last three starts.
-- Nicasio has a 2.86 RA in his last six starts.
-- Richard is 4-0, 1.88 in his last four starts.

-- Hochevar is 4-1, 3.44 in his last five starts.
-- Morrow is 2-0, 1.29 in his last four starts. Hunter is 2-0, 2.81 in his last four starts.
-- Swarzak is 1-1, 2.60 in his last three starts.
-- FHernandez is 1-0, 4.40 in two starts vs Oakland this year; this is his third start in 16 days vs Oakland.

Cold Pitchers
-- Wainwright allowed three runs in 5.2 IP in his first '12, his first start since missing LY with an injury.
-- McDonald is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts. Cain is 1-2, 6.38 in his last three outings.
-- Lee is 1-3, 3.96 in his last four starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 5.73 in his last seven starts. Zimmerman is 1-3, 3.30 in his last five outings.
-- Nolasco is 2-4, 7.79 in his last nine starts.
-- Jurrjens is 1-4, 5.87 in his last eight starts. Wolf is 1-3, 7.42 in his last five starts.
-- LHudson is 1-4, 5.23 in his last five starts.
-- Former Padre Harang is 1-3, 3.86 in his last four starts.

-- ESantana is 0-4, 6.30 in his last five starts. Kuroda is 2-3, 4.59 in his last six outings.
-- Price is 1-2, 6.26 in his last four starts. Beckett is 0-3, 9.50 in his last three starts.
-- Scherzer is 0-2, 13.50 in his last four starts. Peavy is 2-2, 5.40 in his last six outings.
-- Lowe is 1-5, 7.92 in his last six starts, but he won his first start this season.
-- Harrison is 1-2, 4.82 in his last four starts.
-- Colon is 1-1, 5.84 in two starts this season, both against Seattle; this is his third start against M's in last 15 days.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won five of their first seven games.
-- Nationals won last three games, allowing four runs.
-- Milwaukee won four of its last six games. Atlanta won its last two games, scoring 12 runs.
-- Arizona won five of its first six games.
-- Los Angeles won six of its first seven games.

-- Bronx won its last three games, scoring 17 runs; last two wins were both in extra innings.
-- Tampa Bay won four of its first six games.
-- Detroit both won five of its first six games. White Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their first six games.
-- Texas won five of its first seven games.


Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost five of their last seven games.
-- Pirates lost four of their last five games. Giants lost four of their first six games.
-- Mets lost their last two games, scoring two runs. Philly lost three of its last five games.
-- Reds lost four of their last six games.
-- Marlins lost five of their first seven games. Houston lost its last two games, allowing 12 runs.
-- Colorado lost four of its last five games.
-- Padres lost five of their first seven games.

-- Angels lost four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox lost five of their first six games.
-- Indians lost four of their first five games.
-- Orioles lost their last three games, allowing 17 runs.
-- Minnesota lost four of its first six games.
-- Oakland lost four of its first seven games; they scored six runs in last three games. Mariners lost three of their last four games

[rustyw]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Cavaliers don't win much, but they covered their last five games.
-- Hawks are 8-4 vs spread in their last dozen road games.
-- Celtics are 11-3 in last 14 games, covering six of last eight on road.
-- 76ers won their last two games, by 19-18 points. Nets covered three of their last four road games.
-- New York won/covered all eight of its home games under Woodson. Wizards are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road games.
-- Houston won/covered four of last five games, but lost last two home games. Suns won five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks won seven of their last eight road games. Detroit won seven of its last eight at home.
-- New Orleans covered its last six home games (4-2 SU). Jazz won three of its last four games.
-- Nuggets covered seven of last eight as a road underdog.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers covered twice in last seven games as a home favorite.
-- Orlando lost five of its last seven games.
-- Raptors covered twice in last seven games as a home dog.
-- Miami lost three of last four games, including OT loss on road last night. God-awful Bobcats lost last 14 games (4-10 vs spread).
-- Thunder lost four of its last six games. Sacramento lost its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread).
-- Portland is 3-9 vs spread in game following its last 12 wins. Dallas lost 10 of its last 14 road games.
-- Lakers are 1-10 vs spread in last 11 games at Staples and only cover was against the Clippers, who also call Staples home.

Wear-and-Tear
-- Cavaliers: 3rd game/4 nites. Pacers: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Hawks: 2nd game/6 nites. Magic: Last two nites off.
-- Celtics: 7th game/10 nites. Raptors: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Nets: Last two nites off. 76ers: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Wizards: Last two nites off. Knicks: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Bobcats: 8th game/11 nites. Heat: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Suns: 3rd game/5 nites. Rockets: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Kings: 5th game/7 nites. Thunder: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Bucks: 3rd game/5 nites. Pistons: 6th game/9 nites.
-- Jazz: 4th game/6 nites. Hornets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Mavericks: 3rd game/4 nites. Blazers: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites. Lakers: 3rd game/5 nites.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Indiana games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven New Jersey games went over total.
-- Last four Washington road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Last three Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Sacramento road games went over total.
-- Over is 10-2 in Milwaukee's last dozen road games.
-- Over is 10-4 in Utah's last fourteen road games.
-- Seven of last nine Dallas road games went over the total.
-- Four of five Laker games went over the total.

Back-to-Back
-- Bobcats are 2-6 vs spread on road if they played at home nite before. Miami is 0-3 vs spread if it lost the night before.
-- Pistons are 1-4 vs spread at home if they played on road nite before.
-- Mavericks are 4-2 vs spread playing second nite in row on road

[Gman1]

CRUSHER PLAYS

Baseball Crusher
KC -125 over Cleveland
(System Record: 3-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 3-6

Hockey Crusher
New Jersey Devils -118 over Florida Panthers
(System Record: 89-5, lost last game)
Overall Record: 89-80-9

Basketball Crusher
Washington +10.5 over New York
(System Record: 75-5, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record 75-73-5

Soccer Crusher
Southampton + Reading UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in England
(System Record: 211-10, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 211-191-17

[patriots12]

Sportsbook Investing

Washington +10.5 over New York

[patriots12]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Texas Rangers Thursday.

Friday it’s the Rays. The deficit is 446 sirignanos.