Monday 4/9/2012 Free Service Plays ( Premiums & Comps )

[rustyw]

WELCOME NEW MEMBERS AND GUESTS

HERE ARE SOME HELPFUL LINKS

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If you need any help or assistance. PM one of the mods. And once again,



WELCOME TO FBZ!

[Gman1]

Hot line$:
Monday's best MLB bet$

St. Louis Cardinals
at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 9)
Thanks to a pair of longballs from Jay Bruce and a late infield RBI single by Scott Rolen, the Cincinnati Reds won the rubber match in their season-opening series with the Miami Marlins. Rolen’s hit in the ninth capped a two-run ninth inning, giving reliever Aroldis Chapman his first win of the season. Chapman struck out two in three scoreless innings.The Reds may need some more offensive production to give Monday’s starter, Homer Bailey, a fighting chance. Bailey owned a 7.98 ERA in five Cactus League starts this spring and was handed the last spot in the rotation when manager Dusty Baker decided to keep Chapman in the bullpen for now. "I haven't really thought about it like that, but I guess it sounds pretty cool," Bailey told MLB.com about facing the defending champs. "It's just the first game of the season, though. It's a team that we know the hitters quite a bit so that brings some comfort."That comfort hasn’t served Bailey well lately. St. Louis is 2-7 in his last nine starts against the Cards. Pick: Cardinals

Washington Nationals
at New York Mets (-105, 8)
Jon Niese and Ruban Tejada stole the show Sunday for the Mets as they completed a series sweep of the Atlanta Braves. Niese took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and Tejada hit a pair of homers and had four hits as the Mets downed Atlanta 7-5. Now Mike Pelfrey takes the hill looking to keep New York’s hot start going. Pelfrey struggled through most of the preseason but allowed only two runs over his last 10 1/3 innings of spring training action. “I had to get it going a little earlier, and I’m glad I did, because I feel like I ended on a good note,” Pelfrey said. “The whole thing is I feel good. I feel strong, the ball is coming out and I have an idea of where it’s going. That means I’m going to be able to locate my fastball, which is all I need.”Manager Terry Collins read Pelfrey the riot act and the big righty has responded. Pick: Mets

[Gman1]

Monday’s betting tips

Weather to watch
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins:
As of Sunday evening, 21 mph winds
were expected to be blowing out to center field.

Who’s HOT
NBA: Golden State has covered in five straight.
NBA: New Orleans is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven overall.
MLB: The over is 12-3 in Kansas City’s last 15.
MLB: The Chicago White Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 games in Cleveland.

Who’s NOT
NBA: Minnesota has dropped seven straight against the spread.
NBA: Denver is 6-16 against the spread in its last 22 games as a favorite.
MLB: Atlanta is 8-20 in its last 28 dating back to last year and has lost each of Brandon Beachy’s last five starts.
MLB: San Francisco is 0-3 this season and is 2-10 dating back to last year.

Key stat
1966 – The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have started the year 0-3. The last time both teams were winless three games into a season was way back in 1966. New York visits Baltimore Monday while the BoSox are in Toronto for a date with the Jays.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers -
Bryant sat out Saturday’s loss to Phoenix with a shin injury and remains questionable for Monday’s game against the New Orleans Hornets. Bryant is averaging 28.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game.

Game of the day
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (-4, 186)

Notable quotable
“It’s been like this for a month. We’ll beat Chicago, then lose to Toronto. Beat Orlando, and then we lose to New Orleans. We just need to have more focus. It’s getting ridiculous at this point. We’re losing to teams we shouldn’t lose to, especially with the magnitude of what’s going on in the season with the playoff run. We can’t be losing these games.” – Denver Nuggets guard Ty Lawson on his team’s inconsistent play. The Nuggets host Golden State as 9-point favorites Monday.

Notes and tips

Chelsea hopes to have some of its walking wounded back in the lineup for Monday’s Premier League match against Fulham. John Terry (ribs), Ashley Cole (ankle), Frank Lampard (thigh), and Ramires (illness) all missed Saturday’s win over Wigan and will be reassessed before Monday’s game. Chelsea opened as a +110 favorite with the draw at +225 and a Fulham victory also at +225.

Daniel Bard could be out of the Boston Red Sox's starting rotation before he makes his first start. After watching closer Alfredo Aceves blow his second save and set-up man Mark Melancon serve up a game-winning home run Sunday, Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine said changes could be coming. The Red Sox fell to 0-3 Sunday after Aceves surrendered a game-tying three-run homer in the ninth and Melancon was tagged for a two-run shot in the 11th in a 13-12 defeat. Bard, who was the set-up man for longtime closer Jonathan Papelbon, was told in the offseason to prepare as a starter. The 26-year-old righthander, whose fastball regularly reaches the high-nineties, has blown 15 of 20 saves opportunities in his career.

The Florida Panthers may give backup goaltender Scott Clemmensen the starting nod for their playoff opener against the New Jersey Devils. A rocky finish to the season by starter Jose Theodore, combined with a strong effort by Clemmensen, has left Panthers coach Kevin Dineen with a "very tough decision" in naming the Game 1 starter. Clemmensen went 3-0-1 and allowed five goals in his last four starts, including a 34-save performance in the regular-season finale against Carolina. The 34-year-old Clemmensen, who had his best season with the Devils in 2008-09, is also 4-0 lifetime against his former team. Theodore, meanwhile, failed to win in his last seven starts (0-3-4) and is 8-14-3 in his career against New Jersey.

[Gman1]

Atlanta Braves 0-3)
at Houston Astros (2-1)

Minute Maid Park
Fast starts had been routine for the Atlanta Braves over the past few seasons, while disastrous beginnings had been the norm for the Houston Astros.When these teams meet Monday night in Houston, it'll be the Astros looking to build on an encouraging start while the Braves try to avoid opening 0-4 for the first time in nearly a quarter-century.After taking two of three in its season-opening series each of the last three years, Atlanta arrives in Houston after being swept in a three-game set by the New York Mets. It's an ominous start for the Braves after they collapsed down the stretch last year."It's never good to come into the season and get swept," catcher Brian McCann said. "Nobody in here is thinking about last year."The Braves totaled seven runs, 14 hits and 25 strikeouts at Citi Field in opening with three consecutive losses for the first time since 2003. They haven't started 0-4 since losing 10 straight to begin 1988.McCann and Dan Uggla have been at the heart of Atlanta's offensive woes, combining for two hits in 20 at-bats. McCann, however, has fared well at Minute Maid Park, totaling four homers and 11 RBIs in his last six games there. The six-time All-Star hit .294 with four homers and eight RBIs against the Astros last season to help the Braves go 5-1 in the series for a second straight year, but is 2 for 14 lifetime against scheduled starter J.A. Happ. Houston beat Colorado 3-2 on Sunday to take two of three. Carlos Lee and J.D. Martinez each homered and had three RBIs in the opening series for Houston, which last started 3-1 in 2006.After starting 0-5 last season, 0-8 in 2010 and 1-6 in 2009, that first series was certainly a welcome change."We're talking about three games - winning two of them," manager Brad Mills said, "(but) moving forward, I think they know and we know that they can do it."
Mills is now hoping Happ can put his troubles behind him. Happ went 4-14 with a 6.26 ERA in 22 starts last season before being sent to Triple-A Oklahoma City on Aug. 6. The left-hander was recalled three weeks later and pitched well, going 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA in six outings.One of Happ's biggest problems was his command. His 4.8 walks per nine innings were the most in the majors by anyone with at least 135 innings pitched. He didn't show much improvement in the spring, however, walking nine in 18 2-3 innings. He had a 5.79 ERA in five Grapefruit League starts. Happ has typically fared well in his career against the Braves, going 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA in six starts, but didn't face them last season.Atlanta counters with Brandon Beachy, who will be making his first appearance against Houston.In his first full season in the majors, Beachy went 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA in 25 starts. In 141 2-3 innings, the right-hander struck out 169 - the most in franchise history by a rookie in the modern era.In six Grapefruit League outings, Beachy had a 5.54 ERA in 26 innings. He struck out 21 and walked nine.Michael Bourn will be making his first appearance against the Astros since being traded to Atlanta at last season's deadline. Bourn, who was born in Houston and attended the University of Houston, spent 3 1/2 seasons with the Astros and was a two-time Gold Glove Award winner and an All-Star in 2010.

All Trends Listed are 80% or Better

Atlanta Braves Trends :
NO 80 % Trends Apply

Atlanta Braves Over / Under Trends :
Under is 8-1-1 in Braves last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 overall.
Under is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 on grass.
Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 games following a loss.
Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Beachys last 7 starts as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Beachys last 6 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.

Houston Astros Trends :
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games.

Houston Astros Over / Under Trends :
Over is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.
Over is 7-1 in Astros last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 7-1 in Astros last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 overall.
Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 on grass.
Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 home games.
Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 games a home underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-0 in Happs last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Happs last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Happs last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Happs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-1 in Happs last 6 starts overall.
Under is 4-1 in Happs last 5 starts as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Happs last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Head to Head Competition
Braves are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Braves are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.

Umpire Name ???

Minneapolis Time 12:00 AM
Pinnacle Sports Book
Atlanta Braves - $ 1,65
Houston Astros + $ 1.55

Public Money
680 Bets
Atlanta Braves 78 %
Houston Astros 32 %

[satch]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Celtics (-5) Sunday.

Monday it’s the Rockies. The deficit is 410 sirignanos.

[Gman1]

NY Yankees (0-3)
at Baltimore Orioles (3-0)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Perhaps the only thing more surprising than how well the Baltimore Orioles have played this season is how poorly the New York Yankees have looked.The Orioles will try to open 4-0 for the second consecutive season and send the Yankees to their first 0-4 start in 39 years Monday night in the opener of a three-game series at Camden Yards.While ending a run of 14 straight losing seasons would be considered a very successful campaign for Baltimore, the Yankees are again expected to compete for a championship.Fast starts haven't been uncommon for the Orioles, who won six of their first seven games last season before dropping eight in a row. They went on lose to lose 93 games and finish last in the AL East for the fourth straight season.Any improvement Baltimore makes in 2012 will hinge on improving a pitching staff that ranked last in the majors in ERA (4.89), hits (1,568) and homers allowed (210).While it's only one series and came against a Minnesota team that struggled to score last season, the Orioles have to be thrilled with how they performed during a dominant three-game sweep.Baltimore pitchers allowed five total runs - none over the first seven innings - and 15 hits in the series.Jason Hammel became the latest Orioles starter to pitch superbly, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning of Sunday's 3-1 victory.Hammel's gem followed stellar outings by Jake Arrieta and Tommy Hunter, who combined to allow two unearned runs over 14 innings in the first two games."That's how we're going to have to win," catcher Matt Wieters told the team's official website. "Starting pitching is what's going to win in this division. And if we keep getting starts like this, we have a good chance."Looking to keep the Orioles rolling will be Brian Matusz, who hopes to erase the memory of a miserable season.Thought to be the team's emerging ace after an outstanding second half in 2010, the left-hander regressed in a huge way last season. He went 1-9 in 12 starts and his 10.69 ERA set a single-season high for pitchers with at least 10 starts.Matusz earned the final spot in the rotation with a solid spring, but making his first start against New York will be a challenge. He was tagged for 11 runs in 6 2-3 innings in two starts versus the Yankees last season.Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are hitting a combined .415 (22 for 53) with 10 extra-base hits - three homers - against Matusz.The Yankees were on the other end of a season-opening sweep, losing all three games in Tampa Bay for their first 0-3 start since 1998.After scoring 12 runs in the first two games, New York was limited to three hits in Sunday's 3-0 defeat."At times it seems magnified when it's the beginning of the year," manager Joe Girardi said. "We've all been through three-game losing streaks. This is a resilient club. We'll be fine."Another loss Monday would make the Yankees 0-4 for just the third time in franchise history and the first since 1973. The only other time New York started with four losses was in 1930.Ivan Nova will try to help New York break into the win column. The right-hander did more than his share of winning last season, finishing second on the team with 16 victories while compiling a 3.70 ERA. Nova, however, posted an 8.06 ERA in 22 1-3 innings this spring and his spot in the rotation was in question.
He is 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA in four starts versus the Orioles.The Yankees have won 13 of 18 against Baltimore each of the last three seasons.

All Trends Listed are 80% or Better

New York Yankees Trends :
Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 Monday games.
Yankees are 5-0 in Novas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Yankees are 6-0 in Novas last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 8-1 in Novas last 9 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Yankees are 8-2 in Novas last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

New York Yankees Over / Under Trends :
Over is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 road games.
Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games following a loss.
Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 4-0 in Novas last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-0 in Novas last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Novas last 6 starts as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Novas last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Novas last 6 starts overall.
Under is 4-1 in Novas last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Baltimore Orioles Trends :
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Orioles are 8-1 in Matuszs last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Orioles are 4-1 in Matuszs last 5 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150.

Baltimore Orioles Over / Under Trends :
Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 5-1-1 in Orioles last 7 vs. American League East.
Over is 10-2-1 in Orioles last 13 games as an underdog.
Over is 12-3-2 in Orioles last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 starts on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 starts as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 starts overall.
Over is 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 home starts.
Over is 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
Under is 7-1 in Matuszs last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 6-1 in Matuszs last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Head to Head Competition
No 80 % Trends

Umpire Name ?

Minneapolis Time 1:20 AM
Pinnacle Sports Book
New York Yankees - $ 1.47
Baltimore Orioles + $ 1.38
Over / Under 9.5

Public Money
780 Bets
New York Yankees 82 %
Baltimore Orioles 18 %

[Gman1]

Insiders Sports Report
4* Houston / Portland Over 196 (NBA)
3* St. Louis (Westbrook) +110 over Cincinnati (Bailey)
3* Washington (Jackson) / N.Y. Mets (Pelfrey) OVER 7½

Turner 4/9
4/9/2012
Game: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs (+120)

Sportbook Investing
Play of the Day:
Los Angeles Clippers +4 over Memphis Grizzlies


CRUSHER PLAYS + RECORDS
Baseball Crusher
Chicago Cubs +120 over Milwaukee Brewers
(System Record: 2-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 2-3

Hockey Crusher
no play
(System Record: 88-5, won last game)
Overall Record: 88-79-9

Basketball Crusher
Los Angeles Clippers +4 over Memphis Grizzlies
(System Record: 74-5, won last game)
Overall Record 74-70-5

Soccer Crusher
Hull City + Middlesbrough UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in England
(System Record: 209-10, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 209-189-17

[Gman1]

NHL Stanley Cup odds:
Penguins favorites to hoist the Cup
The Stanley Cup playoffs are set to start this week.
Check out the latest NHL futures odds before the postseason begins:

Pittsburgh Penguins +400
Vancouver Canucks +600
New York Rangers +650
Boston Bruins +800
St Louis Blues +1100
Detroit Red Wings +1200
Philadelphia Flyers +1300
Nashville Predators +1400
Chicago Blackhawks +1600
Los Angeles Kings +2500
New Jersey Devils +2200
San Jose Sharks +2500
Washington Capitals +4000
Florida Panthers +3300
Ottawa Senators +4000
Phoenix Coyotes +6000

[Gman1]

First-round preview:
Rangers- Ottawa Senators

With the resilient New York Rangers clinching the Eastern Conference title and the surprisingOttawa Senators securing a playoff berth following last year's dreadful 26th-place finish, both teams have already surpassed expectations this season.Can they deliver a series that follows suit? Squandering the opportunity to lock up the team's first Presidents' Trophy since the 1993-94 Stanley Cup-winning season, the Rangers enter the playoffs with two straight losses against an undesirable opponent in the eighth-seeded Senators. Ottawa took three out of four games against New York and earned a point in each game. Neither team, however, is surging into the playoffs on a successful streak.
Like the Rangers, the Senators enter Thursday's Game 1 on a skid of their own. Their 4-2 loss to New Jersey in Saturday's finale was their third straight and the team's middling play earned them a 4-6-0 record over the last 10 games that has the Ottawa faithful concerned.The Rangers rebounded after a late-season dip in March, but never seemed to fully regain their momentum while being chased in the standings the last six weeks of the season. Following Saturday's disappointing 4-1 loss to the Capitals, they hope to start anew."It's been a fun year," goaltender Henrik Lundqvist said following Saturday's season finale, "but I hope -- and everyone else hopes -- that the best is yet to come."


FIVE POINTS TO SERIES

1. Henrik Lundqvist: The 30-year-old goaltender claimed the Rangers' end-of-season award as MVP, and deservedly so. Lundqvist has been the catalyst to the team's ascent to the top of the Eastern Conference standings and his play will be vital to the Rangers' playoff hopes. The remarkably steady Swede has struggled against the Senators this season, however, giving up nine goals in three games.

2. Depth Test: Perhaps the biggest obstacle facing both the Rangers and Senators heading into postseason play is their questionable level of depth. While Ottawa's top three forwards of Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson and Milan Michalek have combined for 96 goals, they are the only players on the team to reach the 20-goal benchmark. The Rangers' top line of Carl Hagelin, Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik is a formidable trio, but the Rangers have struggled for secondary scoring this season as well.

3. Ottawa's Young Guns: Ottawa boasts some of the brightest young stars in the league, particularly standout defenseman Erik Karlsson. The 21-year-old Norris Trophy candidate scorched his fellow blueliners with a league-leading 78 points (19 goals, 59 assists), but how will he fare come playoff time? Senators coach Paul MacLean acknowledged Karlsson will certainly be a target. As the season has gone on, opposing teams have tried to focus on neutralizing Karlsson's impact. The biggest thing for Karlsson in the playoffs will be "to keep the game simple," MacLean said. "Take what they give you and be ready to go, be ready to jump." The Senators also hope center Kyle Turris can become a key contributor.

4. Big-Game Brad: Marquee free-agent acquisition Brad Richards' numbers (25 goals and 41 assists in 82 games) won't knock your socks off, but his value has been evident in his ability to step up in important situations. The former Conn Smythe Trophy winner, who inked a nine-year, $60 million deal with the Rangers last July, tied with team captain Ryan Callahan for fourth in the league with nine game-winning goals.

5. Captain Alfredsson: Since securing a spot in the postseason, MacLean has lauded the leadership of Alfredsson, but could this be the last season of the captain's 15-year tenure with Ottawa? The 39-year-old Swede has shown that he has plenty left in the tank with 27 goals and 32 assists in 75 games this season, and is a proven playoff threat. If this is his last postseason appearance, can he make it one to remember?

Key Matchups

• Henrik Lundqvist vs. Craig Anderson: With an assumed Vezina Trophy candidate between the pipes on one end of the ice, the Rangers have the clear advantage in goal. Lundqvist has delivered probably his finest season to date with a career-high 39 wins, and an impressive .930 save percentage and 1.93 goals-against average. If the Senators stand a chance, they'll need Anderson (33-22-6, .914, 2.83) to step up.

HERO TO ZERO

• Brad Richards: For the power play to keep rolling, the Rangers will need Richards to perform. When the dynamic center is playing at his peak, his creativity and vision boost the entire unit. Seven of his 25 goals this season have come on the power play. Although the long-suffering unit has shown life of late -- with eight man-advantage goals in the last six games of the regular season -- the Rangers' power play (23rd, 15.7 percent) has otherwise struggled consistently throughout their successful 2011-12 season. The team has prevailed in spite of its Achilles' heel, however, and if history is any indication, a troubling power play doesn't necessarily have to be a deal-breaker. The defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins converted only 10 of 88 opportunities for a sobering 11.4 percent. Didn't seem to hurt them too much.

• Milan Michalek: Michalek got off to a surging start for the Senators and finished with a team-leading 35 goals, but cooled off in the last month of the season. Following a hat trick against Tampa on March 6, the 27-year-old Czech native recorded only three goals in the last 14 games of the season. If the Senators want to pull off a surprising series win against the dominant Rangers, his return to a steady scoring clip will be essential.

PREDICTIONS

• Don't expect the Blueshirts to breeze past this Ottawa team. The Senators will give the Rangers plenty of trouble in the first round, but in a test of depth for both teams, New York will wear them down to prevent the upset.
Rangers in 7.

[rustyw]

Today's MLB Picks
San Francisco at Colorado

The Giants look to take advantage of a Colorado team that is 3-13 in Jhoulys Chacin's last 16 starts. San Francisco is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+150). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 9
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Miami at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Sanchez) 15.341; Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.840
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+140); Over

Game 903-904: San Francisco at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.866; Colorado (Chacin) 13.738
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+150); Over

Game 905-906: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.647; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.046
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+115); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Jackson) 15.784; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.845
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Under

Game 909-910: Atlanta at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Beachy) 13.671; Houston (Happ) 14.831
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+150); Over

Game 911-912: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 16.123; Cubs (Volstad) 15.295
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); N/A

Game 913-914: LA Angels at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 14.493; Minnesota (Blackburn) 13.892
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-165); Over

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 15.086; Cleveland (Tomlin) 14.442
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Over

Game 917-918: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 15.698; Toronto (Alvarez) 14.720
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 15.958; Baltimore (Matusz) 14.895
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Under

Game 921-922: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Noesi) 16.698; Texas (Darvish) 16.206
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+190); Under

Game 923-924: Kansas City at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Mendoza) 15.589; Oakland (Milone) 14.796
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Under

[rustyw]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 530-271 (.662)
ATS: 422-410 (.507)
ATS Vary Units: 1096-988 (.526)
Over/Under: 403-422 (.488)
Over/Under Vary Units: 797-904 (.469)

ORLANDO 94, Detroit 85
Washington vs. CHARLOTTE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
INDIANA 100, Toronto 88
MEMPHIS 96, L.A. Clippers 91
Oklahoma City 100, MILWAUKEE 98
L.A. Lakers 92, NEW ORLEANS 91
DENVER 108, Golden State 102
Phoenix 104, MINNESOTA 101
San Antonio 104, UTAH 100
PORTLAND 98, Houston 97

[rustyw]

Mark Lawrence

3* Jazz

[rustyw]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Monday

100* Play NY Yankees (-155) over Baltimore (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

Ivan Nova has won 18 of the last 25 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has also won 11 of the last 15 games vs. division opponents. Ivan Nova has won 22 of the last 31 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is 2-0 vs. Baltimore over his career with an ERA of 3.55.

50* Play Texas (-220) over Seattle (MBL BONUS PLAY)

50* Play Atlanta (-170) over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[rustyw]

David Banks

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

The Phoenix Suns (29-27, 30-26 ATS) are in third place in the Pacific
Division behind the two Los Angeles teams just 5 games behind the Lakers, and
they have moved up to within one game of the Denver Nuggets for the eighth and
final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Real playoff contenders find
ways to beat lesser teams on the road when they need to, and that is what
the Suns will try to do against the Minnesota Timberwolves (25-32, 27-30 ATS)
on ESPN2 from the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN Monday night at 9:00 ET.

The Suns are peaking at just the right time this season as they are now 4-1
both straight up and against the spread in their last five games following
a nice 125-105 blowout of those Lakers on Saturday when Phoenix outscored
Los Angeles 63-48 in the second half. It should be noted that Kobe Bryant
missed his first game in 138 contests for the Lake Show, but that should not
take away from the fact that the Suns had seven players in double-digits, led
by Shannon Brown scoring 24 points vs. his former Laker teammates. Even
Michael Redd went back in time by pouring in 23 points off the bench. Phoenix is
also now 4-2 straight up in its last six road games including good wins at
Utah and Indiana. Just about the only negative regarding the Suns recently is
that their only loss in the last five games came at Denver, a loss that
could come back to bite them in possible playoff tiebreaker scenarios.

The Timberwolves got off to a promising start this season and they were
actually a fun team to watch with the mercurial Ricky Rubio running the point
on his way to a possible Rookie of the Year season. ESPN2 probably scheduled
this game way back when in order to showcase Rubio, but everything changed
when he went down with a torn ACL that ended both his season and that of the
Timberwolves. Minnesota has gone just 4-12 straight up and 5-11 at the
betting windows since Rubio went down, and a team that was among the league
leaders in scoring with its exciting rookie distributor has now reached 100
points just twice in the last seven games. The Timberwolves are still ranked
seventh in the NBA offensively at 98.6 points per game overall, but they have
been plummeting in recent weeks and are only averaging 95.4 points over the
last five games on a dismal 42.2 percent shooting.

These clubs have met twice this season with both encounters coming in
Phoenix. The Suns beat Minnesota with Rubio in the lineup 104-95 as 4-point
favorites on March 1st, but then ironically the Wolves' first win without Rubio
also came in Phoenix in a 127-124 upset on March 12th. The Suns have enjoyed
visiting Minnesota in recent years though as they are now 5-0 straight up
and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the Twin Cities.

PICK: PHOENIX SUNS-2.5

[rustyw]

SPORTS WAGERS - MLB

San Francisco/COLORADO over 9½ Pinnacle
The Giants haven’t got off the mattress yet but their offense is better and scoring runs is not going to be a battle every inning like it was last year. They were swept in Arizona, losing all three games by a run but they did score 14 times. They may have to score 14 times tonight because Barry Zito starts. Zito went 3-4 with a 5.87 ERA in 54 IP last season. You would think that $126M could buy at least one year of good command but the answer is still "no." Foot injury in April cost him 2½ months. He came back for six starts, then foot and ankle woes cost him the rest of season, save for a few ineffectual September relief innings. Has been regressing dramatically every year since ’05 and the only reason he’s even near a baseball diamond is because the Giants have to pay his ridiculous contract. Rockies should get seven or more tonight and they may need it too. Jhoulys Chacin comes with more risk in 2012 than he did at this time last year. Signs of 1H growth evaporated in an epic 2H skills collapse with overall season a major step backward. He issued too many walks and Coors is unforgiving of this flaw. Chacin is still young but 2H WHIP shows the downside potential. One or both of these fragile pitchers are likely to get lit up here, especially Zito and it’s going to take a whole lot of bad luck to keep this one from going over. Play: San Francisco/Colorado over 9½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

CHICAGO +121 over Milwaukee Pinnacle
Milwaukee comes in with a 1-2 record and they didn’t look very good in its two losses, getting outscored 20-8. The Cubs also went 1-2 but could have easily swept the Nationals after blowing two saves in three games. The Cubbies also had a tough opening set of pitchers to face in Stephen Strasburgh, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, yet they could’ve swept. They should find the going much easier here against Shaun Marcum. Marcum battled a shoulder injury much of this spring, and while he appeared to be healthy late in the spring, be wary of a low pitch count this early in the season. He only pitched seven innings in the spring where he went 0-1 in two starts with a 6.14 ERA. We saw many warning signs with Marcum near the end of last year that included a dip in strikeout and groundball rates and that’s a sure sign of a pitcher that could be losing it. Chris Volstad was the complete opposite of Marcum in that he was coming on the second half, posting a 3.37 xERA. Volstad also had a healthy groundball/fly-ball ratio of 51%/31% and if he can get a little tougher on lefties he could be in for a good season and certainly has more appeal taking back a tag than Marcum does spotting one. Play: Chicago +121 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +101 over N.Y. METS Pinnacle
Although it’s a small tag, the Nationals just might offer up the best value of the day. Edwin Jackson makes his Nationals debut after winning a World Series with the Cardinals last year. Jackson has already pitched for six teams so a change in scenery is not going to faze him one bit. A solid xERA history, durability and very good stuff make him worth watching again. However, this one is all about fading Mike Pelfrey. Following a spring in which he allowed 21 ER in 22 IP, Pelfrey was recently informed by manager Terry Collins that he was at risk of losing his starting role. Pelfrey provided ERAs of 3.72 and 3.66 in 2008 and 2010 despite never achieving a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under these write-ups) above 40. Don't count on another season of luck because if he repeats his 2011 skills, he won't just lose a rotation spot, he might be out of the league entirely. Pelfrey has no upside whatsoever and has to be considered one of the riskiest pitchers in the league. Pelfrey favored over Jackson is a mistake. Play: Washington +101 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +101 over CLEVELAND Pinnacle
The Indians had a rather eventful opening day weekend with the Blue Jays in that they played an extra nine innings in the first two games, blew a three-run, ninth inning lead in the opener and held on for their first win yesterday. The Indians hit .153 in the series. Josh Tomlin has had great success at home in his career with a W/L record of 13-4. Overall, he went 12-7 last year with a pedestrian 4.25 ERA. The key to this pretty-good year was dialing in the control (21 walks in 165 innings), which makes you sort of nervous when you consider he only struck out 89. How many guys not named Maddux can sustain control like that for more than one year? Add to that an August elbow strain and the anxiety heightens a bit more. And oh yeah, he's a fly-ball pitcher with an awful GB/FB ratio of 28%/50%. Tomlin is a prime “blow-up” candidate. Chris Sale is an electric lefty that has the tools to make the transition from relief to starter. He keeps the ball on the ground (53% GB% in the 2H of 2011), has shown good command and has no lefty-righty splits. In 71 innings of relief a year ago, Sale whiffed 79 batters. These are exactly type of skills you want to wager on when looking at an underdog. The South Side offers up all the value in this one. Play: Chicago +101 (Risking 2 units).

Seattle +205 over TEXAS BET365
There are surprises every year in every sport and a 3-1 start for the Mariners makes them very worthy of a close look taking back a tag like this one. The M’s have 38 hits over their first four games while batting .266 and that’s not bad at all. A winning frame of mind gives them even more appeal. Seattle will send out Hector Noesi and there’s a lot to like about him. He has a long history of elite command in the minors. He had a 118/15 K/BB in 116 IP in Single-A. He followed that up with a 153/28 K/BB in 141 IP between High-A and Triple-A in 2010 and he showed flashes of dominance with the NYY last season. His 93.3 mph fastball velocity suggests we can't dismiss his strikeout upside nor his solid spring in which he posted a 1.50 ERA in 12.1 innings. On January 18, the Rangers signed Japanese starting pitcher Yu Darvish. In 2011, Darvish posted a 1.44 ERA in 232 innings. His ERA has remained below 2.00 each season since 2007. That’s nice, it really is but these overhyped Japanese pitchers have been nothing but a bust and until we see something from Darvish that says he won’t be, we’ll gladly step in against him. Players that couldn’t make it in the Majors go over to play in Japan. Players that hit below the Mendoza line in the Majors go over to Japan and hit .300. It’s a competitive and entertaining league with many skilled players but it’s not the major leagues. Playing for the Rangers, Darvish has a great chance to win games but in no way does he warrant being a 2-1 favorite without ever throwing a major-league pitch. Play: Seattle +205 (Risking 2 units).

**BPV (Base Performance Value)
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher's strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.