Thursday 4/5/2012 Free Service Plays ( Premiums & Comps )

[Gman1]

WELCOME NEW MEMBERS AND GUESTS

HERE ARE SOME HELPFUL LINKS

-Want to introduce yourself and interact with other new members. This is the New Member Forum and you can ask any questions or make an introduction here. We encourage this for all new members.CLICK HERE..

-Want to post your own picks in the sports forums. We would very much enjoy this. CLICK HERE to access the sports forums.

-Today we also have a in-game chat, we have a bunch of regulars and new posters every time. Get involved and have some fun. CLICK HERE..

If you need any help or assistance. PM one of the mods. And once again,



WELCOME TO FBZ!

[Gman1]

Ice pick$:
Thursday’s best NHL bet$

Florida Panthers
at Washington Capitals (-145, 5)
The Eastern Conference playoff race is close to boiling over. The Panthers and Capitals are still battling it out for a spot in the dance and are coming off disappointing losses.The Capitals dropped a 4-2 decision at Tampa Bay Tuesday and now needs any combination of four points earned by them or lost by the Buffalo Sabres to clinch a playoff spot. Florida blew a 3-0 lead against Winnipeg Tuesday, as well as a chance to punch its postseason ticket. The Panthers need just a single point in their last two games. “We haven’t made things easy for ourselves all year,’’ captain Stephen Weiss told reporters after the game, but the Panthers quickly moved on from the loss. They have picked up at least a point in 12 of their last 14. "We know we're going in a hornet's nest in Washington,” veteran defenseman Ed Jovanovski added. “But we've battled adversity all year, through injuries and tough stretches, and we'll come up with a good game plan and not only get one point but get two."Pick: Panthers

San Jose Sharks
at Los Angeles Kings (-135, 5)
Thanks largely to Jonathan Quick’s incredible run down the stretch, the Los Angeles Kings look like they should hold on to top spot in the Pacific Division. Quick has allowed only one goal in his last three starts and has 10 shutouts on the year after blanking Edmonton 2-0 Monday. "They did a great job. I think maybe once or twice they were able to set up and we kind of shut down everything they wanted to get going," Quick said of his team’s defense. "Everything has its own challenges. Every save brings its own challenges."Meanwhile, San Jose inched closer to a playoff spot by sweeping a home-and-home set with Dallas, outscoring the Stars 8-2. The Sharks need the points more here, but Quick is going to be awfully tough to beat in L.A. before the two teams meet again in San Jose this weekend. Pick: Kings

[Gman1]

Hot line$:
Thursday's best MLB bet$

Miami Marlins
at Cincinnati Reds (-145, 7.5)
Joey Votto and the Cincinnati Reds have big expectations this season. Votto, who hit .309 with 29 homers and 113 RBI last year, signed the fourth-largest deal in MLB history just before the regular season and will pull in $225 million over the next 10 years. The Reds are just hoping Votto’s slow spring isn’t a sign of things to come. The 28-year-old hit .264 without a dinger and had only four RBI in 20 Cactus League games. Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker has seen this kind of thing before and isn’t worried about his slugger. "I'm worried about some of those guys hitting a lot better than they're supposed to be hitting. Those guys are ones you worry about,” Baker told reporters. “If you can hit, you can hit. If you had seen Steve Garvey, Ron Fairly, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray hit, you would have released them every spring. I think you get caught up too much in now as background."Reds supporters finished down more than 13 units last season and the club is going to need some people in the bullpen to step up after closer Ryan Madson blew out his elbow. Sean Marshall will take over for now, but is there a chance Aroldis Chapman will get a shot at some point?We like the Reds to get off on the right foot. Pick: Reds

Toronto Blue Jays
at Cleveland Indians (+110, 7)
There is a lot of talk swirling around that the Blue Jays may be ready to tangle with the perennial powers of the AL East this season. The Jays will need some good breaks along the way, but there’s certainly reason for optimism. “But when you look at our everyday lineup, our bullpen, what the prospects are in our rotation to go along with Ricky’s (Romero) leadership and Brandon (Morrow) I think we will have a breakout year this year,” manager John Farrell told reporters. “So there are a lot of really good and tangible pieces in place to be a contending team.”The Jays cruised through spring training with a 24-7-1 record and we’ll get a close look at Romero Thursday. Toronto should be able to ride the good vibes from spring training to open the season. Pick: Blue Jays

[Gman1]

Thursday’s betting tips:

[B]Who’s HOT[/B]
NBA: Detroit is 13-4-1 against the spread in its last 14 home games.
NBA: New York has covered in 10 of its last 13 overall.
NHL: The New York Rangers has won seven of their last nine.
NHL: Philadelphia has won five straight against Buffalo.

Who’s NOT
NBA: The under is 3-10-1 in Sacramento’s last 14 home games.
NBA: Orlando has dropped four straight against the spread.
NHL: Florida has lost seven of its last eight.
NHL: Edmonton is 2-10 in its last 12 games against Anaheim.

Key stat 2.68 –
The Miami Marlins ranked last in the majors averaging only 2.68 runs per game in preseason play and were held hitless through six innings against St. Louis’ Kyle Lohse in Wednesday evening’s 4-1 loss. The Marlins then had to rush to get to Cincinnati for Thursday’s 4:05 p.m. ET start against the Reds. Cincinnati is set as a -145 favorite.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic –
Howard is considered questionable for Thursday’s game against New York with his back injury. Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson is also questionable. Howard averages 20.9 points and 14.5 rebounds per game. Oddsmakers have yet to set a line for Thursday’s game.

Game of the day
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (N/A)

Notable quotables
"Forget this .500 stuff. This team can do something special. The talent's here, to shoot for the postseason, to make a run at the postseason." – Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Casey McGehee on ending the team’s 19-year streak of losing season. Pittsburgh, which opens the year Thursday at home to Philadelphia, finished in fourth place in the NL Central with a 72-90 record last season. “I don’t think he’s Mark Messier. Some guys don’t react well to that. Guys might tighten up. Maybe their young goaltenders aren’t going to react well to a guaranteed victory by their veteran guy.” – Buffalo Sabres goaltender Ryan Miller on Washington forward Brooks Laich’s guarantee that the Capitals would make the playoffs.

Notes and tips

Boston Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine announced Wednesday that right-handed pitcher Alfredo Aceves will open the season as the team's closer. Aceves takes over the role in Andrew Bailey's absence, who is out indefinitely after having surgery on his right thumb. Aceves has four career saves, including two with the Red Sox last season. The 29-year-old posted a 10-2 record with a 2.61 ERA in 114 innings in 2011. Boston opens the season Thursday in Detroit as a +130 underdog with Jon Lester facing Justin Verlander.

The Boston Bruins are holding down the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference and will now take the opportunity to rest some of their big guns. Zdeno Chara, Tim Thomas, Johnny Boychuk and Patrice Bergeron all stayed in Beantown with the club traveling to Ottawa for Thursday’s game. Anton Khudobin is expected to get the call between the pipes.

Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose participated fully in practice Wednesday and took contact for the first time since suffering a groin injury on March 12. Coach Tom Thibodeau believes Rose could play against the Boston Celtics on Thursday. Rose has missed the last 11 games with the injury and is averaging 22.8 points and eight rebounds in 34 games this season. Oddsmakers have yet to set a line for Thursday's matchup.

[Gman1]

Boston Celtics (30-23)
at Chicago Bills (42-13)

United Center
After back-to-back losses, the Chicago Bulls received some good news regarding Derrick Rose. Despite the team's recent struggles, however, Rose is being cautious about returning too soon.Rose will be a game-time decision Thursday night when the Bulls host the Atlantic Division-leading Boston Celtics.Chicago has been without Rose for 21 games this season, including the last 11 for a groin injury. The Bulls (42-13) are 7-4 during the latest stretch, losing the last two for their first two-game skid of the season.Rose could return as soon as Thursday, though. He practiced Wednesday, taking contact for the first time since the injury. Still, he wasn't ready to declare himself ready to go against Boston.
"I really don't know. I felt good, but me playing tomorrow, I don't know. I'm able to run a little bit more, but not at my top speed," Rose said.Coach Tom Thibodeau said Rose has been increasing his activity each day and said whether he'd go Thursday would depend on how Rose felt in the morning."His speed and quickness looked really good," Thibodeau said. "It was very encouraging."Rose's return can't come soon enough for the Bulls, who lost 92-78 at Oklahoma City on Sunday, then failed to protect a 13-point, third-quarter lead in a 99-93 home loss to Houston on Monday.The consecutive defeats ended their 86-game regular-season run without back-to-back losses.Luol Deng led Chicago with 24 points while Carlos Boozer had 16 points and 13 rebounds against the Rockets. The Bulls, two-games in front of Miami for first place in the Eastern Conference, had 19 turnovers and allowed Houston to shoot 55.8 percent in the second half."Right now I'm disappointed in the way our team is playing," Thibodeau said. "One thing I know about this league is that things change quickly. ... We have Boston coming in who is playing great basketball. Every night you have to be ready to fight."Rose has missed the last two games against the Celtics (30-23), which the teams split, after playing in Chicago's 88-79 win in January. All three games have been defensive battles, with Boston averaging 84.7 points and the Bulls 89.3.The Celtics have been impressive defensively recently despite having a five-game winning streak snapped with an 87-86 loss to red-hot San Antonio on Wednesday.
Boston rallied from a 17-point deficit in the first half, but Paul Pierce's potential game-winning shot bounced off the rim at the buzzer."I think I got to a good place. Just missed the shot," Pierce said. "These things are not really pre-scripted. You get into pressure situations, sometimes they make and sometimes they don't."Ray Allen returned after missing six games with a sore right ankle and had five points and seven rebounds. Avery Bradley scored a team-high 19 points and Rajon Rondo had 17 points and 11 assists.
While the Celtics have held 10 straight opponents under 100 points, Wednesday was not their best effort. They gave up 59 points in the first half - 32 in the second quarter - and were outrebounded 53-39.Boston, which has won 15 of 21, will try to bounce back Thursday - a task that could be easier if Rose is out. The league's reigning MVP has averaged 28.0 points and 6.8 assists his last six games against the Celtics, including 25 and seven in January's victory.Likewise, Rajon Rondo had his best game against the Bulls with Rose out, scoring 32 points to go along with 15 assists and 10 rebounds in a 95-91 win Feb. 12.

All Trends Listed are 80% or Better

Boston Celtics Trends :
Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Boston Celtics Over / Under Trends :
Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Chicago Bulls Trends :
Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

Chicago Bulls Over / Under Trends :
Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Head to Head Competition
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Minneapolis Time 3:30 AM
Pinnacle Sports Book
NO Line

[Gman1]

Starting Pitcher Rankings
1. Roy Halladay, Phi, SP (12)
2. Justin Verlander, Det, SP (17)
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP (20)
4. Cliff Lee, Phi, SP (22)
5. Felix Hernandez, Sea, SP (28)
6. Jered Weaver, LAA, SP (31)
7. Tim Lincecum, SF, SP (32)
8. Cole Hamels, Phi, SP (39)
9. Dan Haren, LAA, SP (41)
10. CC Sabathia, NYY, SP (43)
11. Zack Greinke, Mil, SP (48)
12. David Price, TB, SP (53)
13. Jon Lester, Bos, SP (56)
14. Matt Cain, SF, SP (61)
15. James Shields, TB, SP (64)
16. Yovani Gallardo, Mil, SP (65)
17. C.J. Wilson, LAA, SP (68)
18. Ian Kennedy, Ari, SP (71)
19. Matt Moore, TB, SP (73)
20. Stephen Strasburg, Was, SP (74)
21. Madison Bumgarner, SF, SP (77)
22. Ricky Romero, Tor, SP (79)
23. Daniel Hudson, Ari, SP (84)
24. Jeremy Hellickson, TB, SP (89)
25. Mat Latos, Cin, SP (92)
26. Adam Wainwright, StL, SP (94)
27. Matt Garza, ChC, SP (97)
28. Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle, SP (100)
29. Josh Beckett, Bos, SP (103)
30. Jordan Zimmermann, Was, SP (105)
31. Tommy Hanson, Atl, SP (111)
32. Shaun Marcum, Mil, SP (117)
33. Brandon Beachy, Atl, SP (118)
34. Yu Darvish, Tex, SP (120)
35. Josh Johnson, Mia, SP (124)
36. Cory Luebke, SD, SP, RP (126)
37. Gio Gonzalez, Was, SP (128)
38. Max Scherzer, Det, SP (130)
39. Anibal Sanchez, Mia, SP (133)
40. Doug Fister, Det, SP (139)
41. Hiroki Kuroda, NYY, SP (142)
42. Johnny Cueto, Cin, SP (147)
43. Jaime Garcia, StL, SP (150)
44. Tim Hudson, Atl, SP (153)
45. Justin Masterson, Cle, SP (154)
46. Ervin Santana, LAA, SP (155)
47. Ted Lilly, LAD, SP (158)
48. Wandy Rodriguez, Hou, SP (160)
49. Brandon Morrow, Tor, SP (163)
50. Colby Lewis, Tex, SP (165)
51. Brandon McCarthy, Oak, SP (171)
52. Tim Stauffer, SD, SP (174)
53. Clay Buchholz, Bos, SP (180)
54. Chris Carpenter, StL, SP (184)
55. Gavin Floyd, CWS, SP (187)
56. Mike Minor, Atl, SP (189)
57. Bud Norris, Hou, SP (192)
58. Ryan Dempster, ChC, SP (197)
59. John Danks, CWS, SP (203)
60. Brett Myers, Hou, SP (210)
61. Ricky Nolasco, Mia, SP (212)
62. Scott Baker, Min, SP (213)
63. Jonathan Sanchez, KC, SP (215)
64. Chad Billingsley, LAD, SP (217)
65. Edwin Jackson, Was, SP (219)
66. Jhoulys Chacin, Col, SP (226)
67. Derek Holland, Tex, SP (239)
68. Vance Worley, Phi, SP (245)
69. Jair Jurrjens, Atl, SP (252)
70. Mark Buehrle, Mia, SP (256)
71. Jonathon Niese, NYM, SP (261)
72. Trevor Cahill, Ari, SP (265)
73. Phil Hughes, NYY, SP (271)
74. Homer Bailey, Cin, SP (275)
75. Jake Peavy, CWS, SP (281)

[Gman1]

Pitching or Bitching
The longtime baseball fans and fantasy players will be quick to correct that: They will say that 1968 is, and was, the "Year of the Pitcher." That was the year, after all, that Major League Baseball's aggregate ERA was 2.98, lowest since World War I, and starters managed quality starts 62.6 percent of the time, most in any season for which that statistic is available (since 1946).In other words, the truth is that we're not necessarily in a pitchers' era … the pendulum is merely swinging back toward pitchers, just as it began to swing toward hitters during that 1993 season.That requires us, the fantasy owners, to adjust accordingly, but there's one thing that ties the 2012 season, 2000 (arguably the worst for pitchers in history), 1992 and 1968 together: It's all about value relative to replacement. Or to use that word again, perspective.Ask any two people how early you should draft your first pitcher and you might get two entirely different answers. Ten years ago, the answer might have been obvious: Pick Pedro Martinez in the first round, or wait until Round 9 to get your ace. Today, however, the case for pitching in the early rounds is valid … just as there's validity to the argument that, since there is so much quality pitching available, you can wait before drafting a starter.The case for building around pitching: Despite the improved league ERA, ace-caliber starters are more reliable and provide a considerable advantage over their brethren. Of the first eight starting pitchers drafted, on average, in ESPN drafts last season, six finished in the top 10 at their position on the Player Rater, and not one finished lower than 30th (Felix Hernandez). Only three of the top eight hitters, meanwhile, finished among the top 10 hitters on the Player Rater.
In addition, using a "value over replacement" statistic such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement), six starting pitchers managed at least a 6.0 in 2011. To compare, four did it in 1992, four in the hitting-rich 2000, seven did it in 2009 and two in 2010. Pitchers like Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson might have experienced a greater comparative advantage -- and corresponding higher WAR -- in terms of value about 10 years ago, but there's no question that the value of an "elite" arm -- think a top-10 type -- has remained largely the same in each of those years, relative to replacement.Now the case for waiting on pitching: Despite the reliability of fantasy aces the past several seasons, there are plenty of surprises annually on the pitching side, both the fortunate (Ian Kennedy, Doug Fister) and unfortunate (Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez). Scoring several "hits" on the pitching side can land you a league-leading staff at a dirt-cheap price; it's not quite as easy to do that with hitters.Plus, just look at the stats. We've rankedMadison Bumgarner, Ricky Romero andDaniel Hudson as our Nos. 23, 24 and 25 starting pitchers, not one would've cost you more than a 16th-round pick, and last season all three finished among the top 25 starters on our Player Rater, averaging 15 wins, a 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 179 strikeouts between them. Meanwhile, Felix Hernandez, our No. 5-ranked starting pitcher, posted 4 wins, a 3.47 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 222 K's, only the strikeouts a better number than the average stat line by the aforementioned group of three. That's extracting arbitrary statistics to support an argument, assuming that anyone would've been lucky to get this combination exactly right, but the point remains: There was a way to build a staff on the cheap in 2011.As for which is the correct approach, the answer might relate to your familiarity with sabermetric pitching statistics, which increases your probability of finding these hidden gems. Also consider the amount of time you're willing to spend both in draft preparation and in-season roster management. If you can't invest the time to do the dirty work, your investment in known commodities should be greater.The past decade has brought with it numerous statistical advantages to help with the former; at the same time, those advances help your competition, too, decreasing your chances of being the only person at the table who knows that hidden gem.The latter, meanwhile, also depends upon the format of your league. The larger your player pool -- think shallow mixed -- the easier it is to find a suitable number of daily or weekly matchups to spot into your lineup.
Just make sure to make the decision before draft day. There might not be a more critical position at which to have a predetermined strategy.

Cream of the crop
"Perennial Cy Young contender" and "perennial fantasy ace" are synonymous. To that end, this group has scored seven of the eight Cy Young Awards bestowed since 2008, each ranked among the top 20 starting pitchers on the 2011 Player Rater, and each managed a top-25 Player Rater ranking in each of the past three seasons.You could probably recite both the names and their accomplishments from memory: Roy Halladay, 2010 National League Cy Young winner and No. 1 fantasy starting pitcher; Justin Verlander, 2011 American League MVP and Cy Young winner and No. 1 fantasy starter; Clayton Kershaw, 2011 NL Cy Young winner; Cliff Lee, 2008 AL Cy Young winner; Felix Hernandez, 2010 AL Cy Young winner and, along with Halladay, one of the only two in this group to have scored top-three finishes on the Player Rater in two of the past three seasons; Jered Weaver, runner-up in the 2011 AL Cy Young race; and Tim Lincecum, NL Cy Young winner in both 2008 and 2009.There are two strengths of this group: Balanced performance across the four rotisserie categories upon which starting pitchers have the most influence is the first. In the past three seasons combined -- that's 21 seasons registered total by these seven starters -- this group is responsible for 16 seasons of 200-plus strikeouts, 13 sub-3.00 ERA qualified seasons, 10 sub-1.10 WHIP qualified seasons and three of the six 20-win campaigns in the majors during that span.But the other strength is stamina; in addition to raw rotisserie influence, these players are annually responsible for tallying the most innings pitched, further bolstering their ERA and WHIP contributions, and increasing their probability of victory. From 2009-11 combined, this group owns the top three spots in innings pitched (Halladay, Hernandez and Verlander), the top four in complete games (Halladay, Lee, Hernandez and Verlander), and the top two in shutouts (Halladay and Lee). Kershaw and Weaver, meanwhile, logged more than 230 innings apiece in 2011, while Lincecum's 1,028 innings pitched since his May 6, 2007, debut are the eighth-most by any pitcher since that date.You can win by skipping over this group, but in an increasingly pitching-centric league, there's validity to bucking the "build around hitting" strategy and picking one to anchor your staff in the early rounds. Wait at your own peril; the less you plan to invest on draft day, the more work you create for yourself unearthing hidden gems and managing matchups in-season.

The next best thing
Perhaps the most compelling case to be made against spending a top-25 overall pick on a starting pitcher is the talent available in the next tier at the position. While the pitchers in the above group might cost you a pick in the first three rounds, the 11 names in this category should go in more like the fourth to seventh rounds. Could a viable strategy be to forgo one of the perennial Cy Young contenders, spending those first three picks on hitters, then pick two of these in rounds four through six?
These 11 starting pitchers are split up into two groups.
The first six are pitchers who, with some good fortune, could realistically contend for the No. 1 spot overall on our Player Rater. These pitchers are largely those whose primary rotisserie numbers -- wins, ERA, WHIP, K's -- might not have overwhelmed last season, but whose peripheral numbers hint at greater things. This group includes three of the top seven in terms of strikeout-to-walk ratio in Dan Haren (5.82), Zack Greinke (4.47) and Cole Hamels (4.41), and five of the top 25 in FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching score): CC Sabathia (2.88), Zack Greinke (2.98), Dan Haren (2.98), Cole Hamels (3.05) and David Price (3.32).Pitchers like Sabathia, as well as Jon Lester, the sixth name in the group, also derive a good chunk of their fantasy value from their win potential. In fact, one of the primary reasons neither one is in the upper tier is because both pitch in the American League East, which is just enough to increase their ERA/WHIP concern.
The next five starters, meanwhile, are more "consistent" types you can bank on finishing in the top 20 but who lack the upside of the former group.
Every single one of them finished among the top 19 starting pitchers in last year's Player Rater, with each earning a vote in the Cy Young balloting and the group being responsible for 15.6 percent of the Cy Young ballot points. But the other common thread in this group is their performance in another key, fantasy-related statistical category: Quality starts. Each member of the quintet finished among the top 12 in baseball in quality starts last season: Matt Cain (26, 3rd), James Shields (25, 5th), Ian Kennedy (24, 10th) and Yovani Gallardo and C.J. Wilson (23 apiece, both 12th).Though the pitchers in this group will almost assuredly be gone by the eighth round in most mixed leagues, it's probably smart to spend at least one pick within those eight rounds on one of the above starting pitchers.

Where's the ceiling?
They're the tantalizing, the exciting, the might-they-break-out-in-a-major-way starting pitchers, and they're the pitchers who might otherwise be contenders for top-10 fantasy starter status if not for some small obstacle in their paths.In several cases, it's a matter of innings. Washington Nationals right-handers Stephen Strasburgand Jordan Zimmermann are two prime examples; they'll be 19 months and 32 months, respectively, removed from Tommy John surgery come Opening Day 2012, and Zimmermann's meticulous workload management last season shows that the team is mindful of pitchers coming off that operation. Strasburg might have his innings capped at 160, and Zimmerman, who threw 161 1/3 innings in 2011, might not be fully set free to work 200 frames and beyond.In others, it's their hitter-friendly home ballparks. Both Mat Latos and Michael Pineda were projected future staff aces at the time of their major league debuts, but they now call Great American Ball Park and Yankee Stadium, respectively, their homes. Japanese import Yu Darvish, meanwhile, must adapt to the U.S. game at Rangers Ballpark. And as all three pitchers will be adjusting to new surroundings -- all three changed teams this winter -- that's another question.Injuries -- or at least injury history -- cast a shadow over two Atlanta Braves pitchers, Brandon Beachy and Tommy Hanson. Beachy's 10.74 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio as a rookie demonstrated his monstrous upside, but to date he has never pitched more than 146 2/3 innings in a professional season, missing time last season because of an oblique injury. Hanson, meanwhile, was on track to have already captured the role of staff ace until shoulder problems ended his 2011 season prematurely.Rookie Matt Moore, boldly ranked our No. 19 pitcher despite his mere 19 1/3 innings of big league experience (and that's counting the playoffs), is still exactly that: A rookie. An adjustment period is always possible.Meanwhile, two other young pitchers, Madison Bumgarner and Jeremy Hellickson, are coming off outstanding breakout campaigns in 2011. But each comes with questions: Was Bumgarner's increase in strikeout rate, nearly a whiff and a half per nine innings over his 2010 number, legit? Is Hellickson's 4.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching score), which was 1.49 higher than his ERA (2.95), the widest differential in the majors, the true indicator of his future talent?

Where's the basement?
Past glory does not always equal future success, and while the pitchers in this group might be familiar -- many of them are even household names -- the prospect of disappointment is somewhat greater for them than those in the higher tiers.Age is a common concern for three: Josh Beckett (31), Chris Carpenter (36) and Tim Hudson(36) are all on the wrong side of 30, and each has already shown us a disappointing campaign within the past three seasons. Beckett had an unsightly 5.78 ERA two seasons ago. Carpenter missed most of the 2007-08 seasons with injuries. Hudson had Tommy John surgery in 2008, missing most of 2009.Speaking of injuries, they're a concern for both Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson, both of whom missed significant action last season. Wainwright, a command specialist who relies heavily upon his curveball, is fresh off a Tommy John surgery of his own, without any statistical data to demonstrate how healthy he'll be. Johnson, meanwhile, missed the final four months of 2011 because of a shoulder issue, one that resulted in multiple setbacks throughout the summer. Hudson also belongs here; he's fresh off November back surgery.Hudson, in fact, belongs in three groups of "basement" candidates, the third being a heavy reliance upon his defense. He and Doug Fister, one of 2011's most surprising breakout stories, generate few strikeouts and need the players behind them to make plays. And in Fister's case, the Detroit Tigers' decision to shift Miguel Cabrera to third base, adversely impacting their defense, could prove disastrous.Finally, what of Ubaldo Jimenez? One of the top pitchers in fantasy baseball two seasons ago -- he ranked fourth among starting pitchers on the 2010 Player Rater -- Jimenez endured a poor 2011, partly a product of diminished velocity. Given a fresh start with the Cleveland Indians, he might bounce back, but at the same time his 5.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 starts for them following his midseason trade don't inspire confidence in fantasy.

Steady as he goes
No one in this group is likely to overwhelm you or convince you that he's the key to a fantasy championship.They are the "ho-hums," the middle ground, the guys you'll take because they look a heck of a lot better than the alternatives in the later rounds. They're the pitchers you should target as your Nos. 3, 4 or 5 fantasy starters, and the brilliant selections for an owner deciding to go the cheap route.Five of these six "reliable" types are standouts in a specific, important statistical category: Strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cory Luebke (3.50), Daniel Hudson (3.38), Hiroki Kuroda (3.29), Shaun Marcum (3.23) and Matt Garza (3.13) each averaged more than three strikeouts per walk in 2011, a number that only 36 ERA qualifiers exceeded last season. Command of that caliber tends to diminish a pitcher's downside, and while none of these five pitchers ranks higher than No. 23, the chances of any of this group dropping out of the top 50 is minimal.The sixth pitcher, however, wasn't a K's-per-walk standout: Ricky Romero.Romero's place in this group is predicated upon his consistent track record of annual improvement; at 27 years old, he's in his prime and coming off a stepladder pattern to his first three big league seasons. From wins to ERA to WHIP to strikeout-to-walk ratio, Romero has improved each season.

Thanks but no thanks: The 'Do not draft' list
A.J. Burnett, come on down!
There are so many different reasons not to draft a starting pitcher, not the least of which is, "He gives up too many runs."Some of the pitchers who belong in this group are obvious, so obvious, in fact, that their respective big league teams might not even afford them enough time in their rotations that they'd pitch the innings necessary to unravel a fantasy team. It's for that reason that this group, while ranked to the point where they'd be draft-day considerations insome fantasy league -- think AL- or NL-only specifically -- is tabbed "do not draft" because they're dangerous options in a mixed league. It doesn't, however, mean that they're entirely without value anywhere.Setting the cruise control is not a recommended strategy with such pitchers, as having them in your lineup for extended periods of time could prove disastrous. Ponder their matchups, but be prepared to bail at any moment.Six of these pitchers rank among the top 10 in earned runs allowed from 2009-11 combined:Carl Pavano and Burnett (311, tied for 1st), Jeremy Guthrie (301, 3rd), Bronson Arroyo (299, 4th), Derek Lowe (292, 7th) and Mike Pelfrey (288, 9th).
Reversing the Fielding Independent Pitching numbers is another way to extract the "danger" arms. Among the 25 worst qualified starters in the category the past three seasons combined are Arroyo (5.01, 4th), Joe Saunders (4.83, 6th), Guthrie (4.74, 10th) and Burnett (4.63, 19th).And how about those pitchers whose command can fail them at any moment? These four pitchers ranked among the 10 worst qualified starters in walks-per-nine innings ratio in 2011:James McDonald (4.11), Charlie Morton (4.04), Chad Billingsley (4.02), Ryan Dempster (3.65).Finally, Francisco Liriano might be the most confounding starter of them all. Remember, he threw a no-hitter last season … but still managed to post a 5.46 ERA and 11 quality starts the remainder of the year.

Talkin' prospects
Matt Moore is head and shoulders the top pitching prospect at the dawn of the 2012 season, and he might be the only prominent rookie to begin the season in his team's rotation. Having a five-year, $14 million contract is one compelling reason for him to crack the Tampa Bay Rays' starting five.Most of the prospects within range of Moore, meanwhile, are candidates for in-season promotions rather than Opening Day rotation spots.The Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners each boasts well-stocked farm systems, especially on the pitching side, and between the teams we might see three prospects reach the majors and make a fantasy impact by midseason. The Nos. 2 and 3 overall picks in last June's draft, Danny Hultzen (Mariners) and Trevor Bauer (Diamondbacks), in fact, might be making cases for top-25 starter status one year from now. Fellow Diamondbacks prospect Tyler Skaggs, meanwhile, could join Bauer in the starting five before the calendar flips to 2013.The Braves have a wealth of pitching prospects, their top two candidates for in-season rotation spots already having received cups of coffee in 2011: Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino. Teheran should be first recalled in the event of a rotation opening, while Vizcaino might even factor into the team's Opening Day bullpen.Among the prospects who will compete for rotation spots early in the year: Jacob Turner of the Tigers, Drew Pomeranz of the Rockies, and both Jarrod Parker and Brad Peacock of the Oakland Athletics.

Points versus Roto
League type has a critical bearing upon the strategy you lay out for starting pitchers on draft day. At no other position is there a greater differential in rankings between rotisserie and points-based scoring than this one.We don't have a single starting pitcher ranked within our top 15 in rotisserie leagues, but in points-based leagues, we have four within our top 10 and six in our top 15. There are only three starters in our top 25 for Roto; 11 starters made the cut in points-based leagues. And while 11 starters cracked the top 50 in roto, a whopping 23 -- or nearly half -- made the top 50 in points leagues.
Wins, innings pitched and strikeouts have a critical bearing upon points-based leagues. There's a reason pitchers such as Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez and Brandon Morrow, pitchers who strike out a healthy number of hitters but regularly rank among the leaders in walks-per-nine ratio, rank higher in points leagues than in roto: It's because strikeouts mostly drive the scoring, and a double-digit strikeout performance can be a week-winner all on its own.Don't underestimate, however, the "per-game" performers, who do experience an advantage as well in points-based formats. Many of the pitchers in the "Where's the ceiling?" and "Where's the basement?" categories benefit in points-based leagues, because while they're surrounded by questions, their upside on a start-by-start basis exceeds that of the safer, more stable, 33-start pitchers. Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg are two excellent examples; Moore is projected to average 19.04 points per game, which would place him in the top five in the game, while Strasburg is projected for 17.93, which would be ninth-best.As for rotisserie scoring, it's the ratio types who rank higher there comparative to their place in points-based. Pitchers like Zack Greinke, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto tend to be more attractive roto than points selections, primarily because they influence ERA and WHIP, two categories that are not specifically scored in a points-based league.

Bottom line
Unfortunately, there is no "right" answer as to how to approach drafting starting pitching. In this age of the pitcher -- well, this recent age -- there's as much validity to scoring one or two anchors for your staff as there is being patient, building a dominant offense in the first five rounds and then scouting pitching values from the considerably deeper pool than in years past.Experienced fantasy owners might get away with the latter; they're more likely to be familiar with the lesser names on our list, able to extract values from deep within the rankings. Owners who are newer to the game might want to grab one top arm, or at least someone from the top 10 overall.

[rustyw]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Knicks won/covered nine of 12 games under Woodson.
-- Pistons won six of last seven home games (5-2 vs spread).
-- Celtics won/covered five of their last six games.
-- Clippers won six of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost its last four games; they're 2-3 in last five at home.
-- Wizards lost eight of last nine games (0-3 vs spread last three).
-- Bulls lost two games in row for the first time this season.
-- Kings lost four of their last five home games.

Wear-and-Tear
-- Knicks: 2nd game/5 nites. Magic: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Wizards: 6th game/8 nites. Pistons: 2nd game/5 nites.
-- Celtics: 2nd nite in row, after two off. Bulls: Last two nites off.
-- Clippers: 5th game/7 nites. Kings: 5th game/7 nites.

Totals
-- Six of last eight New York road games went over the total.
-- Last three Washington games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in Chicago's last dozen home games.
-- Five of last six Clipper road games went over the total.

Back-to-Back
-- Washington is 1-3 vs spread on road if it played at home nite before.
-- Boston is 2-7-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Clippers are 3-4 vs spread on road if they played night before.

[rustyw]

NHL

Hot Teams
-- Sabres won six of their last eight games. Philly won six of seven.
-- Devils won their last four games, allowing six goals. Detroit won three of its last four home games.
-- Ottawa won four of its last five games. Bruins won last four road games.
-- Nashville is 8-4 in its last dozen home games.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four games. Blackhawks won five of their last seven road games.
-- Canucks won their last seven games, six by one goal.
-- Kings won seven of their last eight home games. San Jose won five of its last seven games.


Cold Teams
-- Islanders lost last three games, outscored 14-5. Winnipeg lost six of its last nine games.
-- Toronto lost four of its last five games. Lightning lost four of their last five road games.
-- Panthers lost seven of their last eight games. Washington is 4-5 in its last nine home games.
-- Canadiens lost their last six road games. Carolina lost six of its last nine home games.
-- Pittsburgh lost three of its last five games, losing last two at home. Rangers lost last two games, scoring one goal.
-- Dallas Stars lost four of their last five road games.
-- Columbus lost five of its last seven road games. Avalanche lost four of their last five games overall.
-- Flames lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Edmonton lost three of its last four games, scoring four goals. Ducks lost four of their last five games.


Totals
-- Five of last seven Winnipeg road games went over total.
-- Nine of last ten Tampa Bay road games went over total.
-- Under is 6-1-2 in Florida's last nine games.
-- Last four Buffalo games went over the total. Nine of last ten Philly home games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Montreal-Carolina games went over the total.
-- Last nine Penguin games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3 in Detroit's last ten home games.
-- Over is 8-3 in Bruins' last eleven road games.
-- Three of last four Nashville games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Chicago games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Colorado games.
-- Three of last four Calgary home games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Anaheim road games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Los Angeles games.

Series Records
-- Jets won four of last six visits to Long Island.
-- Maple Leafs are 3-0 vs Tampa Bay this year: 7-1/7-3/3-1.
-- Panthers lost their last four visits to Washington.
-- Flyers won their last five games with Buffalo, scoring 25 goals.
-- Canadiens won five of last seven games with Carolina.
-- Rangers lost last three games with Pittsburgh, outscored 11-3.
-- Detroit beat the Devils twice LY, 4-1/3-1.
-- Bruins won eight of their last nine games with Ottawa.
-- Dallas Stars won three of their last four visits to Nashville.
-- Blackhawks won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Avalanche won nine of last eleven games with Columbus.
-- Canucks won ten of their last thirteen games with Calgary.
-- Ducks won ten of last twelve games with Edmonton.
-- Home side won last four San Jose-Los Angeles games.

Back-to-Back
-- Lightning is 3-5 on road if they played the night before.
-- Montreal is 2-6 on the road if it played the night before.
-- Red Wings are 4-0 at home if they played the night before.

[rustyw]

Teddy Covers

Afternoon Delight! Opening Day Blowout Cash

Toronto Blue Jays ML

[rustyw]

Reno Sports Advisors

4* NY. Mets ML

[rustyw]

Frank Santucci

Parlay

Tigers/Red Sox Over 7, Mets/Braves Over 7, Reds Run Line -1.5

[rustyw]

Chase Diamond

EARLY MLB

30 Dime Pirates +1.5 (-115)

[rustyw]

Crushers


Baseball Crusher

Detroit Tigers -135

Hockey Crusher

Philadelphia Flyers -138 over Buffalo Sabres

Soccer Crusher

Juan Aurich + The Strongest UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in CONMEBOL

[rustyw]

Boston at Detroit
The Red Sox look to build on their 5-0 record in Jon Lester's last 5 starts as an underdog. Boston is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 5
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Atlanta at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 13.940; NY Mets (Santana) 14.575
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Under

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.363; Pittsburgh (Bedard) 14.151
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Over

Game 905-906: Washington at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.697; Cubs (Dempster) 16.382
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-165); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+145); N/A

Game 907-908: Miami at Cincinnati (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Buehrle) 15.306; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.080
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+135); Over

Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at San Diego (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.729; San Diego (Volquez) 16.748
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 5
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Under

Game 911-912: Boston at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.806; Detroit (Verlander) 15.595
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+125); Over

Game 913-914: Toronto at Cleveland (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 13.868; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.294
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Under


Today's NBA Picks
New York at Orlando

The Knicks look to bounce back from a 112-104 loss to Orlando and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games after scoring 100 or more points in the previous game. New York is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Knicks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: New York (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, APRIL 5
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: New York at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 120.819; Orlando 119.730
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: New York (+3 1/2); N/A

Game 503-504: Washington at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.652; Detroit 119.680
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 7; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 5 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5 1/2); N/A

Game 505-506: Boston at Chicago (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.999; Chicago 126.289
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6); N/A

Game 507-508: LA Clippers at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 120.583; Sacramento 118.746
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+4); N/A



Today's NHL Picks
Florida at Washington

The Panthers look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games against Southeast Division opponents. Florida is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 5
Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Winnipeg at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.813; NY Islanders 10.823
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+105); Over

Game 3-4: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 9.803; Toronto 11.354
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125); Under

Game 5-6: Florida at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.239; Washington 10.027
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+125); Over

Game 7-8: Buffalo at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.416; Philadelphia 12.574
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Under

Game 9-10: Montreal at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.372; Carolina 10.964
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+150); Over

Game 11-12: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.288; Pittsburgh 13.385
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-175); Under

Game 13-14: New Jersey at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.107; Detroit 11.069
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+135); Over

Game 15-16: Boston at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.848; Ottawa 12.527
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 17-18: Dallas at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.215; Nashville 10.770
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+150); Over

Game 19-20: Chicago at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.384; Minnesota 12.436
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 21-22: Columbus at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.912; Colorado 10.998
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+165); Over

Game 23-24: Vancouver at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.940; Calgary 11.119
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+130); Under

Game 25-26: Anaheim at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.731; Edmonton 10.014
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+100); Over

Game 27-28: San Jose at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.626; Los Angeles 12.828
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-130); Under