A Few Tuesday Ponies

[Joeaveragefan]

SPOT PLAYS courtesy of Handicappers Edge

For Tuesday

Beulah Park (1st) Futuristic, 5-1
(3rd) Stone Runner, 4-1

Delaware Park (5th) Prime Objective, 6-1
(7th) Red Flair, 9-2

Finger Lakes (4th) Monyona, 7-2
(5th) Full of Expression, 5-1

Fort Erie (5th) Wildcat Prince, 3-1
(9th) Senor Uno, 6-1

Hoosier Park (2nd) Pallaso, 4-1
(9th) Lucky Chuck, 3-1

Laurel (4th) Island Memories, 9-2
(7th) School House, 6-1

Mountaineer Park (4th) Luckylead, 9-2
(9th) Rich Thunder, 7-2

Parx Racing (3rd) Sunhet Drive, 3-1
(8th Andrew L, 7-2

Penn National (2nd) Windy Vale, 5-1
(4th) R Little Lucky, 8-1

Turf Paradise (5th) Officer Lusk, 6-1
(8th) Espresso Springs, 5-1

[Joeaveragefan]

Courtesy of Rick Needham

RACE #5 - PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE - 7:38 PM EASTERN POST
8.3 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $32,000.00 PURSE
#3 DELIGHTFUL DANA
#1 BANKER BAILOUT
#6 CLASSIC JUSTICE
#2 DANCING SPARKS

#3 DELIGHTFUL DANA takes a class drop (-2) this evening, and is both the overall speed and pace profile leader in this allowance field racing at, or about, tonight's distance of a mile and seventy yards on the dirt, and has hit the board in each of her last five starts, with four of those efforts also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." #1 BANKER BAILOUT has posted a quartet of "POWER RUN BOARD HITS" in her last five outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last two starts. Jockey Clinton Potts has been in her irons on 8 previous occasions, hitting the board in 5 of those "adventures," winning 4 times, en route to a 154% return on investment in the process, and is back tonight for his 9th ride.

BEULAH PARK RACE #4: The 9-2 shot, #7 AKAPESCHE, takes a class drop (-2), and has nice overall speed for this mile test on the dirt.

FINGER LAKES RACE #7: #7 READING GROUP is 4-1 in the morning line, and has substantially better speed ( 13) sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt than the favorite, #5 PAWNEE RED.

Fort Erie Race #12 - 5:42PM - #7 STORMY MARDEN 12/1

Finger Lakes - Race #2 - 1:37PM - #1 JUST A WHIM 8/1
Finger Lakes - Race #2 - 1:37PM - #3 SUITE ERNIE B 6/1

[Joeaveragefan]

Parx Racing courtesy of The Turf Club Analysts


Race #9

#4 KING HENRY (ML=6/1)
#1 THIS BUDS FOR US (ML=9/2)
#8 NORMAL PRACTICE (ML=5/2)
#10 GALIENTOS (ML=8/1)


KING HENRY - I like a campaigner that manages to hit the board as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. This gelding is in top form right now. Finished third last time out and comes back quickly. THIS BUDS FOR US - I think the shorter trip will help this colt stay the trip. The recent bullet 48.0 work should put this colt on track for today's effort. When a racer drops at least five lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but its possible this could make the difference. NORMAL PRACTICE - This jockey and trainer are honest together. Win percentage when teamed up is tough to one up. Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. A repeat of that last race on September 5th where he registered a figure of 99 looks lofty enough to score in this race. I like this colt. Has the uppermost earnings per start in today's event. GALIENTOS - A winning percentage like 33 is out of sight for any jockey/handler pair. This colt seems to run pretty good after a vacation. Past Performances show this pony with 3 improving Equibase speed figs. Elliott should be on a live one in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 COUNT ON BUDDY (ML=7/2), #1A MAGNIFI CAT (ML=9/2), #9 WAR FOR GUS (ML=6/1),

COUNT ON BUDDY - If this race shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a severe speed battle early. Too bad this animal is one of those front runners. The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this entrant as a likely underlay. MAGNIFI CAT - Finished first in his most recent performance with a substandard speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field. WAR FOR GUS - Tough to expect this colt to be in form after the extended time off.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 KING HENRY on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4] Box [4,10]

[Joeaveragefan]

Delaware Park courtesy of The Turf Club Analysts


Race #3

#4 DAYS LIKE THIS (ML=8/1)
#14 PRINCESS BEAU K (ML=10/1)
#2 FORBIDDEN BREW (ML=5/1)


DAYS LIKE THIS - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this pony is encountering an easier field than last race out at Delaware. Filly had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. This is this filly's first try on the turf. Ran well finishing third on September 5th. The track was slow that day, so I think this animal will take to the turf. The thoroughbred with the top average class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This pony fits the bill. PRINCESS BEAU K - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter trip and should promote her chances to win. The last time I saw this horse was at Monmouth in a race with a class figure of 93. Dropping considerably in class figure this time out puts her in a solid position in this event. FORBIDDEN BREW - A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a nice effort is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ROAR OF THE KITTY (ML=4/1), #5 SELF RELIANCE (ML=6/1), #8 HONEYMOON WARS (ML=8/1),

ROAR OF THE KITTY - Difficult to keep stabbing at this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing ability on September 24th. SELF RELIANCE - This horse doesn't have a winning make-up. Very often finishes near the winner. Doubtful that the speed figure she garnered on September 29th will be good enough in this event. HONEYMOON WARS - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a short distance race to be worth a shot at modest odds in a sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - DAYS LIKE THIS - Comparing last speed ratings in this field, nobody beats this filly. Tops in the field with a last speed rating of 89 on September 5th.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 DAYS LIKE THIS to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,14]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,14] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,14] with [2,4,14] with [2,4,6,9,14] with [2,4,6,9,14] Total Cost: $36

[Joeaveragefan]

PARX RACING courtesy of Winnersonthewire

1st 7-4-1

2nd 7-3-2

3th 3-5-6

4th 3-1-6

5th 4-3-2

6th 2-1-9

7th 3-2-6

8th 4-7-1

9th 2-6-9-4

BEST BET
RACE 5 # 4 KITNESS

[Joeaveragefan]

Beulah Park courtesy of Gary Johnson

1st- 3,5,6,1

2nd- 3,7,9,8

3rd- 3 (Best Bet),4,8,2

4th- 2,6,1,8

5th- 5,6,8,1

6th- 1,3,8,2

7th- 1,5,3,4

8th- 1,12,2,5

9th- 4,1,7,11

Just FYI, Changes have been made to the Wagering Format at Beulah Park. A Pick 5 with carryover has been added. Also, the takeout has been lowered to 15% on the Pick 3s, Pick 4, and Pick 5, and the minimum wager is now $.50 on the Trifectas, Pick 3s, Pick 4, and Pick 5. JAF

[Joeaveragefan]

Zia Park courtesy of The Turf Club Analysts


Race #8

#5 HOT FOR YOU (ML=3/1)
#9 EASY LOVING WHO (ML=6/1)


HOT FOR YOU - Classic handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a good one. This filly is in excellent condition right now. Finished second last time out and comes back quickly. Recent Equibase speed figures show powerful pattern of improvement. EASY LOVING WHO - We have a baby race here, and this one has solid pedigree stats for sire 2-year-old winners.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MY KINDA PRETTY (ML=9/2), #12 GERDA'S HOME (ML=6/1), #1 GO DOM GO (ML=8/1),

MY KINDA PRETTY - Don't believe this racer will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was pedestrian when compared with today's class figure. GERDA'S HOME - Has been conquered as the public's top choice in back to back races. A repeat is probably in store. 70/61/49, are the dropping Equibase speed figures for this vulnerable equine. GO DOM GO - Oddsmaker's morning line of 8/1 make this thoroughbred a pass by my examination.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HOT FOR YOU - Analysis shows this filly's last speed number of 60 is as good as any. Don't overlook this filly in your wagering.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #5 HOT FOR YOU on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
5 with 9 with [1,6,8] Total Cost: $3