Since i dont have a clue, how to cap the dance?

[jakeandba]

Since i am a novice, what should i begin to look at.



Guard play over conference?



RPI?



Team def played on neutral or away floor?



Three point def ?



i have no clue?



Style of both teams?

I am lost when it comes to the Dance

[Volmania]

Picking a great bracket can be difficult. Hell I have seen a 7 year old that did well based on team nick names. Another year I saw a woman do well who picked based on the team colors.

Here is a couple of articles we posted last year for bracket help.


March Madness Betting and Public Betting Trends
http://www.thefbz.com/reader.php?id=53

Betting the NCAA Tourney - Fading the Public
http://www.thefbz.com/reader.php?id=27

The Odds of Picking a Perfect Bracket
http://www.thefbz.com/reader.php?id=15

Predicting March Madness Upsets
http://www.thefbz.com/reader.php?id=16

[jakeandba]

was able to read a great article which gave direction.



the top four seeds in the first round are



15-1 SU



11-5 ATS



now this is going back to last year but will continue to dig. sounds like parley country along with possible ATS betting.

Last year first round:

Fav won 15 ATS

Dog covered 17 ATS

[datafreak]

12 v 5 is where things get screwy. Look at the point spreads for these games versus the 4 vs. 13 and you'll usually see that 12 seeds can PLAY.

[jakeandba]

As an update for 08 tourney: betting top 4 seeds in the first round



ATS

Favs 11-5



SU

fav 14 - 2


Thanks all for the input

[jakeandba]

For anyone who wishes to be conservative on betting the Dance, did a quick research on how far the #1's went deep in the tourney,

08
The number 1's won outright
3 rounds
5 rounds
4 rounds
3 rounds

09
The number 1's won

2 rounds
3 rounds
5 rounds
2 rounds

Now if you want to bet conservative, the ML might be inviting.

Now the counted started after the first round, since the ML was a huge giant number.

Anyway do know the ML numbers after the second round but a profit has to be turned. Anyway time to Dance

[jakeandba]

of all this research time out the window for the Dance. As of now, 1 and 3...lucky lucky...ok hopefully the games change in the evening session.

[jakeandba]

What a difference a day makes....so far the top 4 seeds have covered 3-1...the tough part is yet to come with the last 4.;...tally ho

[jakeandba]

ok fightn and starting to see the tide turn....Duke covers 4-1 with 3 to go

[jakeandba]

5 -2 today....bout time all that research paid off...after yesterday



Reminds me of the song.....Move bitch get out the way...

[jakeandba]

talk about raising the titanic.....finished 6-2....We are back in the Game...

[jakeandba]

nice win with Kentucky,,,2-2 on the day.



One remaining.

[jakeandba]

Finished the day 3-2....lets c what the top seeds 1 thru 4 do ATS tomorrow.

[jakeandba]

Ok interesting start, Seed 1 Cuse beats Zags...1-0.

Truely worried about Purdue v AM and X v Pitt and Mizz v West Va.....

Tally Ho

[jakeandba]

1 win with OSU and 2 loses wisky and Maryland,,,,Remaining is West Va