Thursday FREE Service Plays (Premium and Comps)

[jlowenberg]

Insider Angles

A couple of slumping teams square off on Thursday night when the South Alabama Jaguars visit the New Orleans Privateers, and considering that both teams are playing equally bad right now, we do not feel that South Alabama should be such a decided road favorite here.

After all, the Jaguars are just 1-7 straight up in their last eight games, and the lone win was by just two points in a home victory over Troy. The seven losses by South Alabama during this streak have been by an average of -8.7 points, and prior to their seven-point overtime loss at Troy on Saturday, they had lost their previous two games by 23 and 11 points respectively. That is not the kind of current form you want in a road favorite.

Now granted, New Orleans is 1-6 straight up in their last seven games, but they still have a winning record at home this season of 6-3. In fact, only one of the six losses during this slump came at home, and that was by just one point vs. UL Monroe, so the recent record for the Privateers is deceptive.

New Orleans may also play with a chip on their collective shoulders here, as they have now lost nine straight meetings head-to-head vs. the Jaguars. However, the South Alabama team this year is weaker than past seasons, so this looks like a good spot for the Privateers to exorcise some demons.

Besides, New Orleans actually covered the last three encounters, and we look for them to take it one step farther here with an outright upset.

NCAA Thursday Pick: New Orleans +4.5

[ugk]

CARLO CAMPANELLA

Game: Tennessee at Louisiana State Feb 4 2010 9:00PM
Prediction: Tennessee
Reason: LSU (9-12) hosts SEC rival Tennessee (18-4) on Thursday night, but home court advantage won't be enough to get the job done as they've struggled to a 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in Conference play, losing 6 of those 8 games by 9 points or more! At 16-4 SU, Tennessee will be one of the toughest Conference opponents they'll met this season and we find LSU at 0-7 ATS at home following back-to-back losses of 10 points or more to SEC foes. Lay the lumber with road Favored Tennessee.

10* Play On Tennessee SEC GOY.

[ugk]

SPORTS WAGERS

BOSTON -½ +1.05 over Montreal

The Bruins are in a horrible funk but there are signs that suggest they’re going to pop anytime now and there’s not a team in the league they’d rather accomplish that against. The B’s are coming off a 4-1 loss to the Caps but that score is somewhat misleading in that the game was tied with about 11 minutes to go. Jose Theodore made some tremendous saves when the score was 1-1 and the Bruins also had a terrific first period. The best news however, was that they looked pretty sharp throughout and created a lot of scoring chances. This team is too good to have this losing streak last much longer and the Canadiens are about as ripe as can be. First, they’re coming off a big win over Vancouver but were the second best team on the ice and it wasn’t close. Prior to that they lost seven of nine and it’s worth noting that Michael Cammalleri is now on the rack and he’s a key contributor to whatever offense the Canadiens can barely muster. Incredibly enough the Bruins find themselves in 12th place in the conference but they’re just two points out of a playoff spot. Expect that wake-up call to ignite them here and the only way they don’t win is if they run into a sizzling hot goaltender. Play: Boston -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).

Colorado +1.19 over NASHVILLE

The Av’s are another one of those teams that are so tough to beat and the proof is in the pudding. In 26 road games they’ve only lost eight in regulation and they’ve only lost 18 in regulation overall in 55 games. They’re as healthy as they’ve been in a long time and with the continued outstanding goaltending of Craig Anderson, why wouldn’t you bet them taking back a tag? The Preds are still laboring and they’re still having trouble scoring. In fact, they’ve scored just 11 goals in its last six games and if you take away the four they scored against Atlanta they’d have just seven goals in five games. To make matters worse, the Preds offense can’t be feeling too confident after they managed just one goal in a 10-round shootout vs the Coyotes in its last game. Frankly, the Av’s do just about everything better than this host, as they have scored more, allowed less, have more PP goals and have allowed less PP goals against and you can throw in an edge between the pipes. Play: Colorado +1.19 (Risking 2 units).

OTTAWA +1.06 over Vancouver

Yeah, the Sens will play the tail end of back-to-backs but when you’re killing it like the Sens have been fatigue is a non-factor. This team can’t wait to get back on the ice after winning its tenth straight in Buffalo last night. The Canucks favored here is simply incorrect and that’s all there is to it. Vancouver is just 11-12 on the road while the Sens are a very impressive 20-8 at Scotiabank Place and that stat alone makes them worthy of a wager. But it’s more than that. The Sens are playing about as flawless as any team has all season and have not allowed more than two goals against in any of the 10 wins of its current run. Among those wins was a 4-1 victory over Chicago and a 4-1 win over Pittsburgh, two of the leagues’ offensive powers but the Sens had little trouble shutting down either one. Lots of excitement in Ottawa and you can expect a playoff-like crowd tonight cheering everything this team does and a loss here would be a bigger surprise than a win. Play: Ottawa +1.06 (Risking 2 units).

Anaheim +1.44 over LOS ANGELES

This could be a tough spot for the Ducks and that’s likely one of the reasons this price is so high but it’s not the best spot for the Kings either. L.A. returned home from a long trip and beat the Rangers 2-1. This is their second game back and that’s always a vulnerable spot after winning the first one. Furthermore, the Kings shot total in three of its last four games was 18, 22 and 21 and that’s not going to get it done against the Ducks. Anaheim has allowed just two goals against in its last three games, as Jonas Hiller continues to play tremendous in the nets. The Ducks will play its third game in four nights here after a win over the Red Wings last night and although they won, they were really not that sharp. It’s worth noting that in addition to Jason Blake, who was playing in only his second game as a Duck, Saiku Koivu and Temmu Selanne are both relatively fresh off the injury list and now both have a few games back under their belt. The Ducks are so dangerous and at this price in this spot, with a short trip to L.A., they’re most definitely worth a look. This is only a play if Jonas Hiller is in net otherwise it's a pass. Play: Anaheim +1.44 (Risking 2 units).

[BiggDogg5n2]

UGK...
Just wanted to say thanks for all the great work you do in these service Forums
Great Job, Thanks, God bless and BOL Today


THANKS BIGGDOGG--I APPRECIATE IT. IT IS A VERY SWEET THING TO SAY. YOU KNOW GIRLS LOVE
FLATTERY. IT GETS YOU EVERYWHERE--LOL

UGK

[ugk]

TRENT CITRON

6 units Tennessee
5 units Cleveland State
4 units Gonzaga

[jlowenberg]

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[ugk]

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ugk

[ugk]

GAMBLERS DATA

5* Clev.ST-5

[ugk]

ALATEX

Fla+2.5
Valpo +6.5
15* Wash State +2.5

[ugk]

FOOTBALL JESUS
Pac 10
play on twitter
Wash State + points over ASU

[joedimes]

JEFF BENTON
Thursday's Action

15 Dime: SAN DIEGO
10 Dime: TRAIL BLAZERS

San Diego

Can you say “letdown”? Well, the San Francisco Dons will be saying it after this game at San Diego today. See, the Dons are coming off Saturday’s shocking 81-77 overtime upset of 13th-ranked Gonzaga – and when I say shocking, I’m not just talking about the fact San Francisco won outright as a 12-point underdog. I’m talking about the fact the Dons entered that game after three straight losses, including two home defeats to Santa Clara (66-65 as a six-point favorite) and Portland (74-58 as a five-point underdog).

How in the hell did San Francisco spring the upset Saturday? Only think I can think of is the Zags just didn’t take the game seriously and they paid the price. Tonight, though, it’s back to reality for the Dons. They have to go on the road (where they’re 1-10 this year, with the only win coming by three points at Loyola Marymount, which is one of the worst teams in all of Division I), and they have to face an angry San Diego squad that is no doubt looking to deliver a little payback.

It was a month ago that the Toreros, fresh off a nine-point win at Santa Clara to start the West Coast Conference season, went up the road to San Francisco and got pummeled 87-71 despite being a 2½-point road chalk. That set off a five-game SU an ATS losing skid that San Diego finally pulled out of just this past Saturday, when it went to Pepperdine and cruised 66-44 as a two-point road favorite.

Prior to last month’s meeting, the Toreros had won five in a row against San Francisco (3-1-1 ATS). That includes last year’s 73-63 win in San Diego. And while the Toreros are 0-2 SU and ATS in conference home games, they played two of the league’s best teams (Portland and Gonzaga).

The bottom line here, guys, is this: San Francisco got lucky on Saturday, because the Dons really aren’t in Gonzaga’s league. Instead, their talent is more representative of a team that’s 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 road games, 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 games overall, 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog of 7 to 12 1/2 points.

Lay the chalk with San Diego, which will play one of its best games of the season tonight and get its revenge by handing San Francisco its eighth double-digit loss away from home this year!

Portland Trailblazers

Both the Blazers and Spurs have been without their point guards for some time (Tony Parker for San Antonio; Brandon Roy for Portland), and both guys are doubtful tonight. But what this comes down to is each squad played road games last night (San Antonio held off Sacramento 115-113; Portland lost at Utah 118-105), and I trust the young Blazers MUCH more in a back-to-back spot than I do the aging Spurs.

Portland is 8-3 ATS this season when playing the second night of a back-to-back, and that run stretches to 12-3 ATS when you go back to last year. San Antonio is 3-5 ATS this year when playing two straight days. In January, the Spurs had three back-to-backs, and travel was involved in all three. In the first, they followed up an 11-point win at Washington with a 91-86 loss at Toronto (as a three-point road favorite). In the second, they followed up a 20-point home win over the Lakers with a one-point overtime victory at Oklahoma City (as a 1½-point underdog). And in the third, they followed up a 16-point loss at Charlotte with a six-point setback at Memphis (as a 1½-point underdog).

The fact the Spurs are actually favored in this game is a bit perplexing, too. Despite last night’s win in Sacramento (and they failed to cover as a 4½-point favorite), they’re just 9-9 on the road, while Portland is 17-9 at home. Also, the Blazers have won four straight meetings with San Antonio, including both clashes this season (96-84 at home; 98-94 on the road). In fact, in the road victory back on Dec. 23, Parker was on the floor for San Antonio, but the Roy didn’t play for Portland, yet the Blazers won outright as a 12-point underdog!

Finally, while the Spurs are in ATS slumps of 2-5 overall, 2-6 as a favorite, 2-9 against the Northwest Division, 1-6 on Thursday, Portland has covered in six of its last seven after a loss and 30 of its last 42 as a home underdog. And the home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, with San Antonio failing to cover in its last five visits to Portland. Wrong team is favored here, guys. Take the Blazers.

[ugk]

MATT FARGO
**8** CBB DARK HORSE DANDY

Matchup: Wright State at Valparaiso
Pick: VALPARAISO +6 (-110)

Valparaiso has pretty much come out of nowhere and is making some noise in the Horizon. While no team is going to take out Butler, who has a four-game lead, teams are going to be vying for positioning to try and avoid playing the Bulldogs in the conference tournament until the latest possible time. The schedule has been close to impossible for the Crusaders who has played 16 of 23 games away from home so far this season. The way things started out on the road, it was expected to be a long season. Valparaiso went 1-10 in its first 11 true road games but things have suddenly turned around. The Crusaders are 5-1 in their last six games including 3-1 in their last four on the road, all of which have come in their last four games overall. The one loss came at Milwaukee by only three points and two of the three road losses in the Horizon have been by three points or less. The better news is that Valparaiso returns home for the first time since January 16th and it brings in a solid 6-1 record at the Athletics-Recreation Center. Even better is the fact we are getting points as the Crusaders are 10-4 ATS this season as underdogs. Wright St. came into the season as the top team to take out Butler in the Horizon. It hasn’t quite worked out that way as the Raiders are a decent 7-4 in the conference but have been stung by close losses. Three of the four losses have come by a combined nine points while the fourth came against the Bulldogs at home. They are 2-3 overall on the road within the conference and it will be tough for Wright St. here as it has its rematch at Butler this Saturday. The Raiders won the first meeting against Valparaiso this season at home by just a bucket as 16-point favorites and the line has come down in this second meeting considerably and for pretty solid reasons. Wright St. does have edges in key categories such as free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio but they are slim. Even though the Raiders do have an edge from the charity stripe by over four percent, the Crusaders made it to the line more often and are averaging more points. As for the ratio, it is just a 1.13 to 1.09 edge and in home/road games, the advantage goes to the other side. Valparaiso has a 1.11 ratio at home compared to a 0.98 ratio for the Raiders on the road and the Crusaders are +0.44 in ratio variance while Wright St. is +0.29. Another edge for Valparaiso is in three-point shooting and that is where the Raiders struggle as they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against teams shooting 37 percent or better from behind the arc. Meanwhile, the Crusaders are 7-1 ATS revenging a loss this season. Wright St. is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of fewer than seven points while Valparaiso is 5-0 ATS and an underdog of fewer than seven points.

8* Valparaiso Crusaders +6

[ugk]

ROCKETMAN SPORTS
PLAYS RATED 1-5 UNITS

NBA San Antonio @ Portland 10:35 PM EST Play On: 5* Portland +2 San Antonio is 2-9 SU and ATS against Northwest Division opponents this year. Portland is 38-19 ATS last 3 years after scoring 105 or more points. Portland is 17-9 SU at home this year while San Antonio is 9-9 SU on the road this season. Portland is 7-2 ATS overall vs San Antonio the past 3 years including 4-0 ATS at home. Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Trail Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Trail Blazers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest. Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Trail Blazers are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games as a home underdog. Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Spurs are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Portland. We'll play Portland for 5 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

5* PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

[ugk]

MIKE LINEBACK

4* San Antonio Spurs -2

[ugk]

ALL COMPS!!!!!

Big Al McMordie
* San Antonio Spurs, Over

Bobby Maxwell
3* University Southern California Trojans (USC),
4* Florida State Seminoles,

Dave Cokin
* Detroit Titans,

EZ Winners
* Portland Trail Blazers,

Gamblers Data
* Washington Capitals, -160

Indian Cowboy
* Louisiana State University Tigers (LSU), +9

Jack Clayton
* North Carolina Tar Heels,

James Patrick Sports
* Santa Clara Broncos,

Jim Feist
* Portland Trail Blazers, Under

Jimmy Boyd
1* North Carolina Tar Heels, +3.5

Jimmy Moore
* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, +13

JR O'Donnell
* North Carolina Tar Heels, +3

Karl Garrett
1* Purdue Boilermakers,

Larry Ness
* University California Los Angeles Bruins (UCLA), -4.5

Lee Kostroski
* Indiana Hoosiers, +12.5

LT Profits
* Virginia Tech Hokies, -3.5

Marc Lawrence (Preferred Picks)
1* Virginia Tech Hokies,

Sam Martin
* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets,

Tom Freese
* University California Los Angeles Bruins (UCLA),

Tony George
* Virginia Tech Hokies, -3.5

Vegas Experts
* Portland Pilots,

Vernon Croy
1* Indiana Hoosiers, +12.5

ADDED COMPS!!!!!

Brett Atkins
3* California Golden Bears,

Charley Sutton
3* Miami Heat,

Chuck O'Brien
4* Indiana Hoosiers,

Craig Davis
3* Notre Dame Fighting Irish,

Doc's Sports
* Virginia Tech Hokies, -2.5

Dominic Fazzini
3* University Southern California Trojans (USC), +2

Drew Gordon
1* Miami Heat, +9

Indian Cowboy
* Louisiana State University Tigers (LSU), +9

Jay McNeil
2* Indiana Hoosiers,

Joel Tyson
4* University California Los Angeles Bruins (UCLA),

Matt Fargo
3* Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans, -2

Michael Cannon
3* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, +12

Stephen Nover
2* Cleveland Cavaliers, -10

Tony Mathews
* North Texas Mean Green, -4.5