Reply With QuoteNORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS
GAME OVERVIEW - The NFL has been transitioning to feature offenses since the success of the 1999 Rams & will now be rewarded for it. The old phrase of "defense wins championships" isn't as iron clad as it used to be despite the success of the Jets in 2009. There were an NFL record 9 QB's with 4,000+yds passing TY with Manning being #2 & Brees #6. This is the biggest QB match-up since Elway faced Favre in SB 32. Manning's Colts are led by Jim Caldwell who is the 6th rookie HC to reach the Super Bowl & the 1st since 2002. This is also the 1st time since 1993 that the #1 seeds in both conferences have reached the SB. IND won the Lombardi Trophy just 3 years ago in Miami vs CHI who had beaten Drew Brees' Saints in the NFL Championship. The Saints are enjoying their 1st SB in franchise history. They have become the embodiment of the city of New Orleans & the local areas that are still rebuilding from
Hurricane Katrina. The story of Archie Manning who was THE star player as a QB for a string of bad Saints teams will also be put in the spotlight as well the impact of his 2 sons. This could be the final game for vaunted Colts coaches Tom Moore (OC) & Howard Mudd (OL coach) who almost retired before the draft but Peyton personally lobbied for their return. Bolstered by a slew of passing records & statistics, a SB win here would move Manning from the "best QB in the NFL right now" discussion to the "best QB ever." Drew Brees deserves a huge amount of credit for being the cornerstone of turning around the Saints' franchise. The impact of DC Gregg Williams on a Saints defense which plays better than its #25 ranking, due to 39 takeaways, should also be front & center. IND is viewed as the favorite due to their playoff experience & the fact they beat the #3 & #1 defenses B2B. NO throttled an undermanned ARZ team & despite being out gained 475-257 advanced due to MIN turning the ball over 5 times on 13 drives. SB dogs have had a strong run going 3-5 SU but 6-2 ATS.
PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE - The Colts are strong believers in continuity & character which has enabled them to reach the playoffs every year since 2002. IND is 9-8 SU & 10-7 ATS (6-2 ATS S/'06) with Manning at the helm in the playoffs. The Colts have 25 players who played in SB 41 & are even staying in the same hotel so they will be very well prepared to deal with the media onslaught. Both teams have 7 Pro Bowlers & while none of the 14 players will play they all have to make the trip to Miami the week prior for media day then return to their teams. IND has 7 offensive & 5 defensive starters who played in SB 41 with LT Charlie Johnson being the #3 OT in the game. Brees has played in 5 playoff games (3-2 SU 2-3 ATS) but has no SB experience. NO has 6 offensive & 3 defensive starters who played vs the Bears in the 2006 NFC Championship. NO has 3 players with SB experience with FS Sharper (97 GB), CB Gay('04 & '07 NE), FB Eckel ('07 NE) & while Shockey was on the '07 NYG team he was hurt & didn't play. This is one of the largest edges in playoff/SB experience in recent memory.
LARGE EDGE: COLTS
RECORD VS THE SPREAD - The entire season these two teams looked to be on a collision course as they were the L2 undefeated teams in the NFL. During the first 13 games of the season both were undefeated the Colts went 10-3 ATS & the Saints went 8-5 ATS after covering their 1st 6 games. The Colts & HC Jim Caldwell took heat after pulling starters up 15-10 vs NYJ but although they went 0-2 SU/ATS in the their final 2 reg season games they achieved their goal. The Saints likewise rested starters late in the season & finished the reg season dropping 3 straight & failing to cover 4 straight. IND went 7-1 SU & ATS on the road out gaining foes by an avg of 386-334 & outscoring them 31-17 facing only one playoff teams (BAL & ARZ). NO also went 7-1 SU but only 4-4 ATS out gaining foes 384-358 & outscoring them 32-21 only facing 1 playoff team (PHI). Both teams' only SU loss on the road was in the finale while resting players. The Colts went 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS when facing teams with winning records with an avg score of 27-23 while the Saints went 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS vs winning teams with an avg score of 31-21. Both teams clearly made the right choice in resting starters in the regular season s the Colts won and covered both playoff games while the Saints failed to cover by a half point last week.
SLIGHT EDGE: COLTS
TURF/SITE - This is an NFL record 10th Super Bowl being hosted in South Florida & the 5th in this building (KR for TD in all 4). Sun Life Stadium is a 76,500 seat venue with a natural grass surface. Both teams are speed oriented & the defenses will be slowed down some the grass which will benefit the QB's. The Saints played here Oct 25th & will be used to the sight lines but many of IND's players were involved in the rainy night game of SB 41. The NFL spares no expense to ensure a quality playing surface however they could be hard pressed to provide one with the Pro Bowl being played 7 days prior. Normally the NFL imports a grass field called Princess 77 for the game costing over $500,000 to install & it gets a month to grow in before its played on. Unlike LY where a large amount of PIT fans made the trip neither franchise is known for its fans traveling. Both teams will be allotted 17.5% of the tickets. One third goes to season ticket holders in a lottery system, one third to suite owners & the rest to the players, coaches & staff. The team hosting the event gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams with the league retaining 30% for sponsors & promotions. The avg ticket price for SB XLIV on the resale market was $2,799 prior to the Championship games.
EDGE: NONE
SAINTS #1 OFFENSE VS COLTS #18 DEFENSE - The Saints offense starts with Drew Brees who is a perfect match for Sean Payton's offensive system. Brees is a rhythm QB who gets better with momentum making those first 15 scripted plays crucial. Minus the QB rush att's NO was a 55/45 pass vs run team in 2009. Payton is a very innovative play caller & the NO system spreads the ball around to various players diffusing opposing defenses. NO had 7 players with 35 or more rec's & 10 players with 1 TD catch.Brees favorite target is Colston & he has logged 1,000 yds receiving in 3 of the L4Y Henderson is the possession WR & 33 of his 54 rec's have gone for FD. Despite Brees coming so close to Marino's single season passing record in 2008 the offense didn't really click until TY with a healthy Shockey to exploit the seams in the middle of defenses. Meachem fi nally came into his own TY as a big play WR (1 TD every 5 rec's) who is able to stretch the fi eld (16.0 ypc is 9th). The 2nd biggest improvement for NO TY was their run game which avg'd 100 ypg (4.0) LY improving to 132 ypg (4.5) TY (6th). All 3 RB's were hit with injuries TY with Thomas missing 2.5 games due to bruised ribs.However the Saints emphasize a different RB week to week depending on the foe they are facing. Thomas is the all purpose RB, Bell the power back & Bush is a multi-role speed/agility back that can motion out of the backfield & play slot. Bush's versatility is another key component to the offense but he is starting to slow down due to a chronic knee injury. NO returned 4 of 5 starters that developed together when the OL was rebuilt back in 2006. Brees has only been sacked more than twice in a game 2 times TY (MIA & DAL) & incl the 2 playoff games he's avg'd 1 sack every 27 att's. RG Jahri Evans has evolved into arguably the best OG in the NFL despite coming from a Div II school. NO will have to contend with a very fast IND defense that matches up fairly well in the passing game. IND's #18 defense isn't that bad considering that Antonio Johnson is a 5th RD DC that was signed off TEN's practice squad LY & Daniel Muir is 3rd year UFA that was claimed LY off waivers. GM Pioli likes to state the Colts play the run (25th, 127 ypg, 4.3) on the way to the QB (15th 34 sacks). IND's offensive success also helps dictate opposing teams tendencies as they play the pass more. This is the 1st playoff run since the SB win in 2006 that IND had Freeney & Mathis healthy together (22.5 sacks 66% sacks). IND's LB's don't get a lot of credit as they are system LB's that are very fast & are sure tacklers. IND is one of the NFL's best at not giving up big plays in 2009 & while they give up yardage in a grinding style they also force teams into mistakes. Brackett is a solid if undersized MLB & Session is an underrated WLB is a poor man's Derrick Brooks. While IND is a better team when Bob Sanders plays, the Colts don't miss him as Antoine Bethea had an All-Pro level season & Melvin Bullitt is solid run stuffer. IND is very specific in how it drafts CB's requiring them to be solid tacklers who are very fast & they tend to get beaten up. IND has given up four 300 yd passing games TY vs Warner, Schaub & Brady with the 4th coming vs Sanchez in the playoffs when they were in a prevent defense. They've allowed 229 ypg passing (63%) with a 21-19 ratio with 3 TD's coming vs BUF. They have only allowed 3 games of 3 passing TD's but will be hard pressed to match that here. NO's balanced offense has the edge here despite IND's speed.
EDGE: SAINTS
COLTS #9 OFFENSE VS SAINTS #25 DEFENSE - IND is the only team since the 2002 realignment to with double digit wins & playoff appearances. Continuity is the core of the Colts offense as Manning has had the same OC & OL coach the entire time he's been in the NFL. HC Jim Caldwell was his QB coach from 2002 until he took over as HC with Frank Reich replacing him. Manning has become the best statistical QB in the NFL & is keenly aware of his place in the NFL history books. He won his 4th MVP in 2009 with no less than 5 come from behind 4Q wins en route to a 14-0 start. What makes 2009 stand out is the fact that he no longer had Marvin Harrison & his replacement Anthony Gonzalez (knee) was lost after the season opener. Manning was able to force feed Pierre Garçon & Austin Collie into the Colts system & develop them. He was still able to get Reggie Wayne who is arguably the 3rd best WR (behind ARZ's Fitzgerald & HOU's Johnson) & Dallas Clark who is one of the top 5 receiving TE's in the NFL 100 rec's each. Manning's attention to detail in the passing game over the season helped push Garçon & Collie to a combined 18 rec's (15.2) vs the Jets #1 D. IND has only avg'd 80 ypg (3.5) rushing the L2Y despite adding Donald Brown in TY's draft. While IND does struggle in short yardage situations the truth is they view RB's as extra pass blockers & Addai is a good receiving RB (51 rec, 6.6). IND does an excellent job of developing OL & getting to overachieve. They are dedicated pass blockers who provide little push at the point of attack & while a lot of credit goes to Manning they have only given up 1 sack every 40 pass att's TY. IND can be slowed down by bigger & physical defenses like TEN's LY, JAX in Wk 1 or BAL in the Nov game. Aside from the NFC Championship game where they unloaded on Favre, NO isn't known for that. Gregg Williams runs an aggressive blitzing scheme that isn't afraid to come from any angle. Will Smith is the top pass rusher on the team (13 sacks) but he's not known for his run stopping ability like Charles Grant (torn triceps) was before landing on IR after TY's season finale. DT Ellis took a huge step in development & with him in the lineup the Saints only allowed 103 ypg (4.2) vs 151 ypg without him. One of the glaring weaknesses for NO's defense had been the lack of an impact MLB but Vilma has locked the spot down & is the one player that Williams trusts with changing defensive play calls on the field. Prior to 2009 the Saints gave up a whopping 79-39 ratio over 3 years. While DC Williams rightfully gets most of the credit the truth is NO revamped the secondary signing Sharper (9 int), Greer, Tracy Porter is back from a broken wrist & drafting ******* who would be the nickel CB. NO's secondary was very beat up TY & at one point was without 4 of its top 6 CB's but still finished 3rd with 26 reg season int(GB 30 BUF 28). NO allowed five 300 yd passing games TY but only 1 game with 3 TD passes (WAS). NO's does have a very dangerous secondary but they don't have the physicality overall to slow down Manning who will have extra time to break down the defense.
EDGE: COLTS
SPECIAL TEAMS - It's not much of a surprise that both teams are at the bottom of our special teams rankings as the Colts (#31) simply don't spend money in this area. They replaced their special teams coach & P in the off season but avg'd a 37.8 net avg (20th). NO's (#30) P Morstead tied for 32nd in net avg (36.0) but part of the problem for both P's is that their offenses stall in favorable field position & they aren't allowed to unload like Lechler does with OAK. Both teams have poor PR #'s with IND avg 5.2 (28th) & NO avg 4.6 (31st). Bush however remains a weapon & had an 83 yd PR TD vs ARZ. K's have struggled with FG's in the 2009 playoffs (20 of 33) & IND has a huge edge with Stover (569 att's) over Hartley (26 att's) despite his game winning 40 yd FG vs MIN. NO has the edge on KR's (4th) thanks to Courtney Roby whose 27.5 avg tied for 11th. Both teams have poor KR defenses with NO being 29th (24.5) & the Colts finishing 31st (25.3). Struggling teams generally place more emphasis on their special teams while good teams have cap issues that prevent their starters from playing there. Neither team qualifies for an edge here based on their body of work.
EDGE: NONE
COACHING - For the 3rd time in 4 years a member of the Tony Dungy coaching tree will appear in the Super Bowl. Jim Caldwell was an assistant coach with IND in SB 41 which made the transition from Dungy's retirement very smooth. Thanks to Manning he was able to bring back OC Tom Moore & OL coach Howard Mudd for another year keeping that side of the ball together. He did bring in a new DC in Larry Coyer who set up a system for bigger DT's but kept the overall team speed intact. He also hired a new special teams coach in Ray Rychleski & while those results haven't moved IND up the rankings they didn't cost them any games like LY's Wildcard loss to SD. Sean Payton is a former AFL QB who came into the league as a QB coach for Jim Fassel & Ray Rhodes. His career blossomed under Bill Parcells as he helped develop Romo into a starting QB. Payton is widely regarded as the best offensive oriented HC in currently the NFL.Payton made the highly publicized & successful move (chipping in $250K of his own salary) to hire Gregg Williams as his DC.NO's defense was 11th after the 1st 7 games but injuries &the offensive play style saw them decline as the season went along. Both teams have solid offensive coaches & really the defenses are in the 1st year of new DC so there are no edges.
EDGE: NONE
PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES - The last meeting between these teams was the 2007 NFL season opener where IND shredded NO 41-10 as a 6 pt HF. IND had a massive emotional edge in their 1st game since their SB win & NO was pressing too hard to be perfect after the NFC Championship loss. NO DC Williams is very familiar with Manning having been the TEN DC from '97-'00, BUF's HC from '01-'03, the WAS DC in '07 & the JAX DC in '08. He is 2-5 SU & 1-5-1 ATS vs Manning with his defenses allowing 285 ypg (65%) with a 13-4 ratio with 7 sacks. Both teams carry themselves very well in the media & there isn't likely to be any "bulletin board" material here. NO does have the emotional boost of their 1st SB in franchise history & will be playing for themselves & the city. While the media will try to play up Archie Manning's involvement with both franchises here it won't carry weight on the field.
EDGE: NONE
The Super Bowl is a great handicapping lesson. It is an isolated game & the bye week affords the media to dissect every aspect of the contest. The best value is during the regular season when Vegas posts numbers on 45 or more CFB games, with NFL sides & totals. Do not fall into the trap of putting your biggest play or anything close to it on the most isolated game in any sport. Our Super Bowl System was revised last year and it is 22-0 on games with OVER 50pts & 32-2-2 94% on games with 21.5 pts or higher! This year's system was not finalized as of press time. Don't miss out on this year's winner! Call 1-900-776-7871 for just $30 or get it using your Northcoast Debit Card for only $20! This is a game that PP is ideally suited for. Both teams have played their L2 games at home in controlled situations so their numbers aren't skewed by weather. This will be a very neutral site in terms of fans but its too early for an accurate weather forecast. This is the highest SB total in history & PP has a very slight lean with the Over here. The line is so high due to the elite QB's playing & it could be like the ARZ/GB playoff game TY where both defenses were gassed by the 3 Qtr. PP calls for 842 combined yards here & NO's return combo of Roby & Bush wouldn't surprise us with a TD. PP has this right around the side making it a No Play but we'll do a very small play on the Over.
FORECAST: SAINTS/COLTS OVER
RATING: 1★
