SUPER BOWL 44 XLIV SUNDAY FREE SERVICE PLAYS (Premiums And Comps)

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NORTHCOAST SUPER BOWL PROP BETS

PROP BET #1- MARQUEE SINGLE PLAY #20144 Largest Lead of the Game Under 16.5 (Even)

PROP BET #2-MARQUEE DOUBLE PLAY#109 New Orleans plus .5 -130 in the 4Q. (-130)

PROP BET #3-MARQUEE SINGLE PLAY#15018 Saints/Colts Under 2.5 Sacks (+120)

PROP BET #4-MARQUEE DOUBLE PLAY# 20163 NO Saints Will Score 1Q Touchdown. (+110)

PROP BET #5-MARQUEE SINGLE PLAY# 20121 Will 4Q Be The Highest Scoring? Q-YES (+210)

PROP BET #6-MARQUEE SINGLE PLAY#20129 Will Both Teams Make FG's of 33yds Or Longer-YES (+200)

PROP BET#7-MARQUEE DOUBLE #169 Marques Colston OVER 4.5 Receptions (-140)

PROP BET#8-MARQUEE TRIPLE #197 Reggie Bush OVER 53.5 Combined rush/rec yds (-130)

PROP BET#9-MARQUEE TRIPLE #20193 Drew Brees Longest Completion OVER 38.5 yds (-125)

PROP BETS#10-MARQUEE DOUBLE#20211 Pierre Thomas WILL Score a TD (+140)

PROP BET #11-MARQUEE TRIPLE #20310 Manning More Gross Passing yds in 2H (even)

PROP BET #12-MARQUEE DOUBLE #131 YES There Will Be A DEF/ST TD (+145)

PROP BET #13-MARQUEE TRIPLE #181 Reggie Wayne OVER 5.5 Receptions (-115)

PROP BET#14-MARQUEE SINGLE #20257 Jeremy Shockey WILL Score a TD (+330)

PROP BET #15-MARQUEE DOUBLE #20361 Reggie Wayne WILL Score a TD (even)

PROP BET #16-MARQUEE DOUBLE #20293 Jonathan Vilma OVER 6.5 Total Tackles (+105)

SUPER BOWL RELEASE ON SUNDAY 2/7/10 AFTER 11:00 AM ET

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THE FALL MIRACLE

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - 210 & UNDER 57

NFL/CFB--The Fall Miracle -11.50 units 50.84% 181W 175L

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DAVE MALINSKY SUPER BOWL PLAY

4* #101 NEW ORLEANS over INDIANAPOLIS

It is absolutely no secret what the numbers ?3? and ?4? are worth in the NFL. When they are established as win numbers in a competitive game it means that we have a lot going for us, and it is the process that made those numbers available of the New Orleans side of this equation that has created extreme value for this game.

There was a lot of discussion on the day of the Conference Championship games as to where the Super Bowl would open, and the back-room consensus was a -2.5 with the Colts over either the Saints or Vikings, or a -3 that would be shaded via the money line towards the underdogs. Our own contribution to the processes was that it was
the proper range, based on nearly five months of watching the teams play. And once Indianapolis had the Jets firmly in hand, we saw one of the strongest stores open the game at -2.5 for a while, before taking it down when the Vikings/Saints kicked off. It was a good line. Indianapolis has had a special season from Peyton Manning (back
in an October ?Verities & Balderdash? column we were noting that he was playing as well as any QB we had ever charted), and deserved the role of the slight favorite, but the Colts are not an overpowering side.

So fast forward and the markets are sitting at -5, with our hopes of getting +6?s negated by Dwight Freeney likely to be only a minimal factor on Sunday. The +3 and +4 have turned into New Orleans ?win? tickets, not necessarily because of what had happened over the course of the season, but rather the fact that the Saints appeared to be as much lucky as good in escaping vs. Minnesota. That is an awfully big adjustment off of a single result, but as is so often the case, the markets can be overly influenced by what they saw last. So what is the proper context? We do not know who the better team is, and one side has been established as a substantial favorite despite the fact that their ground game is much weaker, and that they are going to have a difficult time getting the opposing offense off the field.

Manning has been absolutely brilliant this season, overcoming the absence of a reliable ground game (that is an understatement, with the Colts gaining 129 fewer yards overland than any team in the league, with only the Chargers getting less per attempt), and a lack of depth and experience in the receiving corps. It was his savvy that led to a remarkable run of 7-0 in games decided by four points or less, and they compiled six wins in single digits against opponents that did not make the playoffs. This is a team that does not have much margin for error, especially with Freeney?s lessened status taking away a key cog defensively, and their reputation is in conflict with their reality in terms of the public perceptions in the upward surge of this line.

So let?s go to the matchups. The overall defensive numbers for the Saints are not special because of a weakness against the run, but that soft spot will not be exposed here. What this group does do is generate a pass rush and make plays, with 35 sacks and a sparkling ratio of 26 interceptions vs. only 15 TD passes allowed. And most
important for our purposes, those numbers were not just piled up with big leads against weak opponents. Down the stretch and in the playoffs they faced Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, and in those three games generated 10 turnovers, and a fantastic ratio of five interceptions vs. only two TD passes allowed. You do not expect Manning to be forced into mistakes, but the same can be said about
those other three savvy veterans that struggled so much vs. this defense.

When the Saints have the ball it is a different story. Consider this pointspread in light of a team that ran for over 2,000 (#4 in the NFL) yards at 4.5 per carry vs. a defense that allowed over 2,000 (#24) at 4.3. That matchup provides an awful lot of leverage for Drew Brees and the passing game, creating extra time in the pocket via play action, and then it is Brees and his 70.6 percent accuracy vs. a defense that allowed 63.8. And with Freeney unlikely to be a significant factor (as a speed rusher that ankle injury takes away the heart of his game), we expect to see the Indy defense on their heels throughout. While their overall numbers in the regular season were respectable they did not face a lot of major challenges, and
were nothing special when they did have to step up (like the 34 points and 477 yards they allowed to Brady and the Patriots). And while the Saints were having to deal with Warner and Favre in the playoffs, Indy faced Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez, with the gap in experience between those duos about as wide as can be possible.

The bottom line is that the Colts do not bring advantages anywhere near what this pointspread indicates, and even past experience is not a huge factor, with only 19 players on this roster holdovers from their Super Bowl win on this field four years ago. This is absolutely anyone?s game to win outright, and it would be no surprise at all to
see Brees and all of those New Orleans weapons in the skill positions dictate the flow throughout against a favorite that brings holes that can be exploited.

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FOOTBALL JESUS SUPER BOWL PLAYS

PLAYS
Main Play: Colts Moneyline
Smaller : Colts-4
Colts First Half-3

PROP BETS
Saints to commit most turnovers
Shockey less than 35.5 recd yds
Both teams to have FG of over 33 yards -NO
The COLTS will make have shortest TD..
Total yards for Saints – bet OVER 379...
MORE points scored in the 2nd half than the first half…
Will Saints have the lead in the second half..YES
Longest FG in the game will be UNDER 43.5 yards

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ADAM MEYER

PLAYS
Indianapolis Colts Moneyline
Indianapolis Colts -4 & 1/2
Under 56 & 1/2

PROP BETS
Team to use First Time Out : Saints-110 med
1st TD run or Pass- I bet on PASS -190
Special Team TD yes or No, bet NO-150
Team to score First : I bet Saints +135
What team has the longest kickoff return - Saints -145
More Pts scored in 1st or 2nd half, = 2nd half
OVER/Under 3 sacks bet OVER +110
Brees over 290.5 yards I bet YES
Colts score in all 4 qtrs YES +130
First 1st Down of the Game run or pass= RUN+160

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PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS

40 Units Indianapolis Colts -4.5
10 Units OVER 56.5

PROPS BETS
Colts Longest Field Goal in game -130
YES fumble in the first half -110
Total Sacks in game OVER 3.5 +2.5
Peyton Manning TOTAL Pass Attempts OVER 36.5 -135
Donald Brown total rush attempts OVER 5 +120

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MADDEN SUPER BOWL SIMULATION

Using a video game simulation of Super Bowl XLIV with their football franchise Madden NFL, the publisher predicts the New Orleans Saints will upset the Indianapolis Colts by a score of 35-31.

According to the simulation, Saints quarterback Drew Brees snags MVP honors by throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Saints running back Reggie Bush boasts a strong game with 78 total yards, one TD and an additional score off a punt return. Colts' QB Peyton Manning finishes with a solid performance - 322 yards, 3 TDs - in the losing effort.

Before you dismiss Madden NFL as a worthy prognosticator, consider the game's track record. EA says they have correctly predicted the Super Bowl champ five of the last six years. The lone slip-up: the Giants upset of the undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

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BILLY WALTERS
2 Million Indianapolis Colts

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SPORTS NETWORK OVERALL ANALYSIS

Apart from the two quarterbacks, much of what the Colts and Saints are about defies a simple evaluation of personnel. Are these the two most talented teams in the league? Probably not. But strong systems, good coaching, and a winning culture have equaled a combined record of 31-5 this season - these teams know how to win. But knowing that, this game will be won based on the subtlety of a few matchup advantages. The New Orleans defense has had success this season by forcing turnovers, and Manning is as careful a quarterback as you'll find in the NFL. The Colts are going to score some points here, and will show an ability to keep the ball out of Brees' hands, thus reducing his margin for error dramatically. When the Saints do control it, don't count on them matching the Colts score-for-score, or from staying mistake-free when it matters.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Saints 17

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DAVE BLEZOW

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6-4 sides in playoffs
6-4 totals in playoffs

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS & OVER
NO Saints 30-27

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POINTWISE

SUPER BOWL PROPHECY

INDIANAPOLIS 34 - New Orleans 24 RATING: 3

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SPORTS MEMO'S NEWSLETTER
SUPER BOWL PICKS

Tim Trushel..... New Orleans +6 ....Under 56.5

Teddy Covers...Indianapolis -5.5 ...Under 56.5

Fairway Jay .....New Orleans +6.... Over 56.5

Erin Rynning.....New Orleans +6..... Under 56.5

Brent Crow..... New Orleans +6 ......Over 56.5

Rob Veno....... New Orleans +6....... Over 56.5

Marty Otto...... Indianapolis -5.5..... Under 56.5

Andrew Lange ...Indianapolis -5.5..... Under 56.5

Donnie Black..... New Orleans +6 ......Under 56.5

Helmut Sports.... Indianapolis -5.5 .....Under 56.5

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STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

(101) NEW ORLEANS at (102) INDIANAPOLIS – Super Bowl XLIV

STATFOX STEVE SAYS: The more I studied the Super Bowl game and its recent history this past week, the more I realized that you simply cannot handicap it the same way you do the rest of the season. With so much betting activity,oddsmakers treat the game differently, thus the regular bettor should too. This is as public of a game as there is in sports. Clearly, with the Colts playing as 5.5-point favorites,
they are the team being overpriced. If you were to look at the StatFox Power Ratings, Outplay Factor Ratings,and Forecaster for this game, you would undeniably want
to wager your money with the Saints. However, as I said, you have to change your way of thinking for this contest. The fact is that the AFC is the premiere conference nowadays in the NFL, and it is evidenced by the fact that they have sent just four fairly dominant teams to the Super Bowl in the last nine years while the NFC has sent nine different teams. The AFC has been that good because it has quarterbacks capable of winning big games. None is better than Peyton Manning. The StatFox Game Estimator projects the Colts to gain just shy of 300 yards passing in this contest. Take a look at this Money Line Trend associated with that: INDIANAPOLIS is 18-0 against the money line (+18.6 Units) when they gain 250-300 net passing
yards over the last three seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 26.8, OPPONENT 14.3. I just can’t see Manning losing here against a New Orleans defense that lives by turnovers. He will pick them apart. Colts 33, Saints 20.

STATFOX DAVE SAYS: Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees: Since the opening line was set last week all my office colleagues laugh and talk about is how Peyton Manning will single handedly win Super Bowl XLIV. Early bettors also seem to think like my officemates, as the opening line was pushed from -3 to -5.5. I personally hope this line keeps moving toward Manning as I am going to put my action on the Saints. If the money line hits plus-250 I am going to take some of that action as well. My reason: the better quarterback in 2009 was Drew Brees, who set the NFL record with
a 70.6 completion percentage and topped the league with a career-high and franchise record 109.6 rating. I mean no disrespect to Manning but this year’s best quarterback will win Super Bowl XLIV—Drew Brees.

STATFOX DOUG SAYS: From a personal point of view, I would like to see New Orleans win Super Bowl XLIV, not that I like it better than Indianapolis, but it would be amazing for what it would do for those from the Crescent City who have suffered so much in recent years. However sports betting isn’t about nice stories with happy endings, it’s about being on the right side of a wager and winning. I see the Colts winning 34-23 and here’s how: The Saints won’t have an answer for Peyton Manning all night as he throws to receivers all over the field. The Indianapolis defense
will surrender ample yards to Drew Brees and company, with its pass rush doing just enough to force New Orleans into more field-goal attempts than it would prefer.
Left tackle Jermon Bushrod sticks out as real spot for the Saints. This will be an entertaining contest, with Indy crowned champs for the second time in four years.

STATFOX JOHN SAYS: As cliché as it may sound, it seems like yesterday that we could be excited about a new NFL season, and now here we are at the apex with the two best teams giving us the grand finale once more. I’m really glad to see New Orleans make it this year and I feel that even if there is some disappointment in a loss, the Saints have every right to the claim of being the best team in the NFL
this year. My head tells me the Colts will apply their cold militaristic push into glory, but there is something especially uplifting in cheering for the underdog. I’m taking
the Saints and the points.

STATFOX JEFF SAYS: This is the first time since 1993 that the top seeds in both conferences advanced to the Super Bowl. Beyond that, both of these teams started the season with long undefeated runs: the Saints started 13-0, while the Colts won their first 14. When handicapping a game between teams of this quality, you really have to look for subtle differences. First the Colts’ two losses were largely of their own doing as they chose to rest starters instead to shoot for an undefeated regular season. The Saints were beaten legitimately at home by the Cowboys and Bucs
(yuck) before they clinched home-field advantage. New Orleans is also quite lucky to be here. The Saints were dominated on the stat sheet by the Vikings and only advanced because of another infamous Brett Favre postseason gaffe. Indy seems to be playing at a higher level now, however that value is already built into the -5.5 line. The Colts also have a nasty habit of keeping the game close—six of their 14 regular-season wins were by one touchdown or fewer. I think ultimately Peyton Manning and the Colts will win their second championship in the past four seasons, but it wouldn’t shock me if we see another win/no-cover scenario play out.

****STATFOX STEVE WAS THEIR BEST CAPPER THIS YEAR****

SUPER BOWL GAME TOTAL:

STATFOX STEVE SAYS: Halfway through the season, the Colts were the league’s best-scoring defense, allowing just 13.5 points per game. The Saints allow 21 points per game, not 30. I think it’s a mistake to have this be the highest total in Super Bowl history. Going Under.

STATFOX DOUG SAYS: The slightest of leans with the Over. Though the ball will be in the end zone a plenty, enough field goals will be kicked for a grand total of 57 points.

STATFOX JEFF SAYS: This choice here is simple. If the Saints win, it should be an Over and vice versa. Therefore, I will call for a fairly high-scoring 34-20 type game, but it will stay Under.

STATFOX DAVE SAYS: According to 73 percent of all wagers placed (Sportsbook.com) on the total have favored the Over. I normally fade the public but I am going to ride the public on this play and follow them on the Over 56.5. I just can’t pull the trigger on a New Orleans/Indianapolis Under.

STATFOX JOHN SAYS: Give me the Over after seeing these two offenses play in the playoffs. With Drew Brees’ team averaging 32.6 points per game, Peyton Manning is going to have to score himself, thus taking it Over.

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WAYNE ROOT'S SUPER BOWL PICK

NO Saints (4.5 or +5) over Indianapolis Colts

PREDICTION: 4* New Orleans Saints +4½ or 5 over Indianapolis Colts & Total Over 57
MILLIONAIRES CLUB

My reasoning: It would be even higher rated...but Peyton Manning is just too good...he worries me...he might be the greatest QB and field general EVER...so that`s the only thing standing in the way of a Saints upset. But I will say that Indy is the worst "PERFECT" team I`ve ever seen. They ended last season 9-0...and started this season 14-0. That`s 23-0 in games they cared about winning! But they did it with smoke, mirrors and one amazing future Hall of Famer. They are built around one strength- Manning- which masks a very average team... with a inferior running game...and a pedestrian defense. They are also led by an inferior rookie coach Jim Caldwell who before this season...had a record of 26-63 as a Head Coach (of Wake Forest). But with Manning calling the plays...who needs a Head Coach? Give credit for 14-0 under Caldwell...as well as 9-0 to end 2008 under Tony Dungy...to Manning. Now don`t get me wrong- the Saints "D" is even worse (in every category) than the Colts, but that doesn`t matter. Against Manning, no "D" is safe. So the fact that the Saints` "D" is bad is actually not a factor in my pick. Manning will score 4 to 5 (or more) touchdowns against ANY "D"...good or bad. No one can stop him. The fact that our Saints` "D" is bad got us an extra 4 1/2 points. I`ll take it!!! But the Saints statistically inferior "D" does 2 things well - cause turnovers and pressure the QB. So I give the Saints as my upset pick because I think that Drew Brees can match Peyton TD for TD. And if our Saints get even 1 turnover...we win the game. Stop Manning ONCE and go the other way... plus 4½ or 5 points...the odds are greatly in our favor of beating the spread. Whoever has the ball last probably wins this game. So bet with some caution. Because it could be tied with 2 minutes to go...and Manning could throw a 7 as the clock runs out...beating the spread. That`s our worry. We might have the correct side and still lose the game to the greatest QB ever. But our ace in the hole is that +4½ point spread. Manning might score a field goal on that last drive...cementing his place in history...but clinching the "W" for us! One other factor I`ve found...the team that has more come-from-behind wins during the season has won 8 of the last 9 Super Bowl OUTRIGHT since `2000...and even the one exception...covered the spread as a dog (Carolina vs. New England). New Orleans has 7 come from behind wins this season...vs. only 4 for Indy. That`s a big difference. The prior teams with that big a difference in this trend all won the Super Bowl. All this trend really means is that with Brees` firepower, we are never out of the game. Take the 4½ as a gift. Let`s hope it goes up to +5. Best Wishes, Wayne Wayne Allyn Root, Founder & CEO

PROP BETS:
1) SAINTS - 7.5 PAYS +475
2) WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FINAL 2 MINS OF THE FIRST HALF? NO PAYS +250
3) SAINTS WIN 1ST HALF AND THE GAME...BOTH MUST HAPPEN. PAYS 4 TO 1
4) MARGIN OF VICTORY WITH SAINTS WINNING...BY 5 TO 8 POINTS PAYS 8 TO 1
5)THE FINAL POINTS SCORED BY THE SAINTS....35 PAYS 12/1

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BANG THE BOOK

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here and the world is anticipating an exciting show featuring two of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints will partake in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. The New Orleans Saints are making their first appearance in the Super Bowl while Peyton Manning and the Colts will be trying to win their 2nd Championship in 4 years. The Saints offense led the NFL in scoring this season averaging nearly 32 points per game and the Colts were not far behind averaging 26 points per game leading viewers to expect fireworks this Sunday night.

Last year’s Super Bowl broke the all-time viewing record at nearly 98.7 million viewers and this year nearly 10 billion dollars is expected to be wagered on the big game worldwide. Therefore, it is easy to understand why the Super Bowl is easily the single biggest sporting event on the planet. Under those circumstances, both teams will be under a huge amount of pressure. A lot of people think the Saints have momentum on their side, but Colts QB Peyton Manning is perhaps the best in the business and has been in this situation before. So who will win the biggest game in sports?

It is no secret that the Colts heavily favor the pass just like the Saints and have tons of success doing so, but their defense may not be getting the credit they deserve. The Colts defense has surrendered just 10 points on average in their two playoff wins. However, the secondary has been very questionable this season and that is the main concern when facing the Saints offense. Still, if the Colts defensive front can get pressure on QB Drew Brees they could really frustrate the Saints offense. Last week the Vikings held Brees to just a 55% completion percentage due to their relentless pass rush and that has to be the main focus for the Colts defensive front this Sunday.

On offense, the Colts fast paced and methodical approach is difficult to defend. Manning reads defenses better than any quarterback in the NFL and is averaging over 300 yards passing per game in the two postseason victories. The Saints have really struggled against the pass this season, but they have also forced a ton of interceptions, 26 during the regular season. Therefore, Manning can not afford to give the Saints secondary chances to bring down any interceptions. WR Reggie Wayne is the big play threat and TE Dallas Clark is perhaps the go to guy in key situations. However, young wide outs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have inflicted most of the damage during the postseason as defenses have keyed in on Wayne and Clark. Collie and Garcon have combined for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns during the playoffs. The question is who will step up on the biggest stage? Still, if the Colts can just prevent turning the ball over and giving the Saints any additional opportunities with the football they will be hard to beat.

The Saints offense has done a tremendous job at spreading the ball around this year and they have a ton of guys that the Colts must keep an eye on in the passing game. Wide receivers Devery Henderson and Marques Colston are extremely dangerous targets combining for nearly 2,000 yards and 11 touchdowns during the regular season. Of course additions targets like Robert Meachem and Jeremy Shockey will also be in the mix of things as well. QB Drew Brees is having a sensational season throwing for 4,388 yards with 34 touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes. Those are very stellar numbers and Brees has performed well during the postseason as well. The key for the Saints offense will be “space.” They have to keep the Colts defense spread out giving their playmakers some 1 on 1 opportunities. When the Saints get space they can get some big plays and also work tailback Reggie Bush into the passing game. If that happens, the Colts secondary will have their hands full.

For the Saints defense, they have to use the electricity from the big game and turn that into a positive. Often times in big games, you will see defenses step up and that has to be the Saints defense on Sunday. Safety Darren Sharper led the NFL with 9 interceptions during the regular season and a few of those big plays would be extremely critical in helping their chances in scoring the win. Nobody expects the Saints to flat out stop the Colts offense considering that is highly unlikely. However, if they can prevent the 7 point scores and force a few turnovers they will have a great opportunity to score their first ever Lombardi Trophy.

I just do not see Manning losing this game and believe a late touchdown seals the deal for the Colts.

PICK: Indianapolis Colts -4 ½